⊞ Resumen Ejecutivo
EEFF Auditados DIC-2025 · ENE-2026 real P&L Dirección · FEB-2026 real DCR · Proyecciones corregidas Q1 real+recuperación APR-DIC
Pérdida Neta 2025
($683M)
CRÍTICO — EEFF auditado firmado
EBITDA 2025
($204M)
-5.2% margen vs bench 18-28%
Caja DIC-2025
$285M
vs $508M DIC-2024. Caída $223M
ENE-2026 Real
$418M
YoY -11.2% vs ENE-2025
FEB-2026 Real
$266M
YoY -13.2% vs FEB-2025
Crédito disponible
$208M
9.4% de $2.21B total
E1 EBITDA 2026
$338M
9.6% margen · $3.52B ingresos
E2 EBITDA 2026
$687M
18.5% margen · $3.72B ingresos
P&L Comparativo AnualMontos en MXN
| Concepto | 2024 Real | 2025 Real | E1 2026 | E2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS NETOS | $3.89B | $3.86B | $3.52B | $3.72B |
| EBITDA | $131M | ($204M) | $338M | $687M |
| Margen EBITDA | 3.4% | -5.2% | 9.6% | 18.5% |
| UTILIDAD / PÉRD. NETA | ($312M) | ($683M) | ($123M) | $67M |
| Margen Neto | -8.0% | -17.7% | -3.5% | 1.8% |
| Nómina | $908M | $911M | $838M | $729M |
| Rentas Locaciones | $509M | $525M | $493M | $441M |
| Depreciación | $420M | $457M | $416M | $416M |
| Intereses | $254M | $316M | $289M | $271M |
Ingresos Anuales 2024–2027
Proyecciones 2026–2028 — Metodología Corregida
Q1-2026 real fijo (−17.9% YoY) · APR-DIC con tasa de recuperación por escenario
| Escenario | 2025 Real | 2026 | YoY vs 2025 | 2027 | YoY | 2028 | YoY | Supuesto APR-DIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SQ — Sin Acción | $3.86B | $3.17B | −17.9% | — | — | — | — | Tendencia Q1 real continúa sin intervención |
| E1 — Conservador | $3.86B | $3.52B | −8.8% | $3.81B | −1.5% | $4.07B | +5.4% | CDW+pricing activan Q2. APR-DIC −5% vs 2025 |
| E2 — Moderado | $3.86B | $3.72B | −3.8% | $4.16B | +7.7% | $4.58B | +18.4% | E1 + RMS + corporativo. APR-DIC +2% vs 2025 |
📈 P&L Detallado
Real 2024-2025 auditado · ENE-2026 real P&L Dirección · Proyecciones E1/E2 metodología corregida Q1 real + recuperación APR-DIC
P&L Anual Comparativo
Ingresos Mensuales
ENE-2026 Real
Gráfica Ingresos
P&L Anual — Real 2024-2025 + Proyecciones 2026-2027
Nota: Q1-2026 real fijo (ENE −11.2% / FEB −13.2% / MAR proy −30.7%)
| Concepto | 2024 Real | 2025 Real | E1 2026 | E2 2026 | E1 2027 | E2 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS NETOS | $3.89B | $3.86B | $3.52B | $3.72B | $3.81B | $4.16B |
| YoY vs 2025 | — | — | -8.8% | -3.9% | -1.5% | 7.7% |
| EBITDA | $131M | ($204M) | $338M | $687M | $590M | $1.12B |
| Margen EBITDA % | 3.4% | -5.2% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 15.5% | 27.0% |
| UTIL. (PÉRD.) NETA | ($312M) | ($683M) | ($123M) | $67M | $95M | $300M |
| Margen Neto % | -8.0% | -17.7% | -3.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| Utilidad Bruta | $2.94B | $2.71B | $2.59B | $2.79B | — | — |
| Margen Bruto % | 75.6% | 69.4% | 73.4% | 75.0% | — | — |
| Depreciación Flota | $420M | $457M | $416M | $416M | — | — |
| Intereses | $254M | $316M | $289M | $271M | — | — |
| Seguro de Flota | $228M | $268M | $208M | $193M | — | — |
| Nómina | $908M | $911M | $838M | $729M | — | — |
| Rentas Locaciones | $509M | $525M | $493M | $441M | — | — |
| Mantenimiento | $250M | $232M | $194M | $178M | — | — |
| Comisiones Agencias | $206M | $172M | $148M | $141M | — | — |
Ingresos Mensuales — 2025 Real vs Escenarios 2026
ENE/FEB anclados a real · MAR proyectado DCR pace · APR-DIC por tasa de recuperación
| Escenario | ENE | FEB | MAR | ABR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AGO | SEP | OCT | NOV | DIC | TOTAL | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS 2025 Real | $471M | $307M | $359M | $340M | $285M | $276M | $348M | $339M | $245M | $266M | $317M | $312M | $3.86B | — |
| INGRESOS SQ 2026 | $418M | $266M | $248M | $279M | $234M | $226M | $286M | $279M | $201M | $219M | $260M | $256M | $3.17B | -17.9% |
| INGRESOS E1 2026 | $418M | $266M | $248M | $323M | $271M | $262M | $331M | $322M | $233M | $253M | $301M | $297M | $3.52B | -8.8% |
| INGRESOS E2 2026 | $418M | $266M | $248M | $347M | $291M | $281M | $355M | $346M | $250M | $272M | $323M | $319M | $3.72B | -3.9% |
ENE-2026 Real — P&L Dirección
Fuente verificada: P&L Dirección 28-02-2026
| Concepto | Importe MXN | % Ing. |
|---|---|---|
| Ingresos Brutos | $465M | 111.2% |
| Descuentos y Contracargos | ($4M) | -1.0% |
| INGRESOS NETOS | $418M | 100.0% |
| Depreciación | ($36M) | -8.7% |
| Intereses | ($30M) | -7.2% |
| Seguro de Flota | ($18M) | -4.2% |
| UTILIDAD BRUTA | $307M | 73.3% |
| Nómina | ($37M) | -9.0% |
| Rentas | ($42M) | -10.0% |
| EBITDA | $107M | 25.5% |
| UTILIDAD NETA | $70M | 16.8% |
Comparativa Q1 Real 2026 vs 2025
| Mes | 2025 Real | 2026 Real/Proy | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENE | $471M | $418M | -11.2% |
| FEB | $307M | $266M | -13.2% |
| MAR (proy) | $359M | $248M | -30.8% |
| Q1 Total | $1.14B | $933M | -17.9% |
Ingresos Mensuales — 2025 Real vs E1/E2 2026
EBITDA Anual 2024–2027
⏱ Flujo de Caja 24 Meses
Saldo inicial $285M (DIC-2025 auditado) · SQ vs E1 vs E2 · Rojo = caja negativa
Saldo de Caja Proyectado ($B) — SQ vs E1 vs E2
Flujo Mensual 24 Meses
Saldo inicial: $285M · Benchmark mínimo operativo: $400M
| Mes | SQ Saldo | SQ Flujo | E1 Saldo | E1 Flujo | E2 Saldo | E2 Flujo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENE-26 | $812M | $528M | $886M | $601M | $913M | $628M |
| FEB-26 | $846M | $33M | $975M | $89M | $1.01B | $102M |
| MAR-26 | $877M | $32M | $1.07B | $93M | $1.13B | $110M |
| ABR-26 | $910M | $32M | $1.16B | $91M | $1.23B | $108M |
| MAY-26 | $886M | ($23M) | $1.20B | $45M | $1.30B | $71M |
| JUN-26 | $863M | ($23M) | $1.25B | $44M | $1.38B | $70M |
| JUL-26 | $838M | ($26M) | $1.30B | $50M | $1.46B | $81M |
| AGO-26 | $812M | ($25M) | $1.35B | $49M | $1.54B | $80M |
| SEP-26 | $790M | ($22M) | $1.39B | $42M | $1.60B | $65M |
| OCT-26 | $768M | ($23M) | $1.43B | $43M | $1.67B | $69M |
| NOV-26 | $743M | ($24M) | $1.48B | $47M | $1.75B | $76M |
| DIC-26 | $719M | ($24M) | $1.53B | $47M | $1.82B | $76M |
| ENE-27 | $1.19B | $471M | $2.10B | $578M | $2.45B | $631M |
| FEB-27 | $1.17B | ($23M) | $2.16B | $59M | $2.55B | $95M |
| MAR-27 | $1.14B | ($25M) | $2.23B | $65M | $2.65B | $106M |
| ABR-27 | $1.12B | ($24M) | $2.29B | $63M | $2.76B | $102M |
| MAY-27 | $1.09B | ($23M) | $2.35B | $57M | $2.85B | $90M |
| JUN-27 | $1.07B | ($22M) | $2.40B | $56M | $2.94B | $88M |
| JUL-27 | $1.05B | ($25M) | $2.47B | $64M | $3.04B | $104M |
| AGO-27 | $1.02B | ($24M) | $2.53B | $63M | $3.14B | $102M |
| SEP-27 | $1.00B | ($21M) | $2.58B | $52M | $3.22B | $81M |
| OCT-27 | $981M | ($22M) | $2.64B | $55M | $3.31B | $86M |
| NOV-27 | $957M | ($24M) | $2.70B | $60M | $3.40B | $97M |
| DIC-27 | $934M | ($23M) | $2.76B | $60M | $3.50B | $96M |
⚡ Escenarios E1/E2
Comparativo 2025 Real vs SQ vs E1 Conservador vs E2 Moderado · 2026-2027 · Palancas priorizadas
Comparativo Anual
Palancas E1/E2
Gráfica
Escenarios 2026–2027
SQ = sin acción · E1 = CDW+costos · E2 = E1+RMS+corporativo
| Indicador | 2025 Real | SQ 2026 | E1 2026 | E2 2026 | E1 2027 | E2 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS NETOS | $3.86B | $3.17B | $3.52B | $3.72B | $3.81B | $4.16B |
| YoY vs 2025 | — | -17.9% | -8.8% | -3.9% | -1.5% | 7.7% |
| EBITDA | ($204M) | ($159M) | $338M | $687M | $590M | $1.12B |
| Margen EBITDA | -5.2% | -5.0% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 15.5% | 27.0% |
| UTIL. / PÉRD. NETA | ($683M) | — | ($123M) | $67M | $95M | $300M |
| Margen Neto | -17.7% | — | -3.5% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 7.2% |
| Nómina | $911M | — | $838M | $729M | — | — |
| Rentas Locaciones | $525M | — | $493M | $441M | — | — |
| Depreciación | $457M | — | $416M | $416M | — | — |
| Intereses | $316M | — | $289M | $271M | — | — |
| Mantenimiento | $232M | — | $194M | $178M | — | — |
| Flota activa (uds) | $14K | $12K | $12K | $12K | $12K | $13K |
| Utilización objetivo | 72.1% | 72.1% | 76.5% | 80.0% | 77.5% | 82.0% |
| EPD objetivo ($/día) | $0K | $1K | $1K | $1K | $1K | $1K |
Top 10 Palancas Priorizadas — E1+E2
| Tipo | Acción | Horizonte | Impacto | Nota CFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ingreso | CDW $150/día + TP $110/día — 62 plazas | 0-90d | +$32M/año | Sin inversión · margen 65-80% · capacitar 2h |
| Ingreso | EPD +$118/día → $1,100/día plazas util>75% | 0-90d | +$16M/año | Solo ajuste tarifario · impacto inmediato |
| Ingreso | Auditoría GDA Aeropuerto (−41% YoY) | 0-90d | +$41M/año | 2a plaza del país · causa raíz urgente |
| Flujo | Renovar Element Fleet (vence MAY-2026) | URGENTE | Protege 1,320u | Sin renovar: −$73M/año · ACCIÓN HOY |
| Flujo | Vender 800u >36m (ABR-MAY + SEP-OCT) | 0-180d | +$70M flujo | Manheim/ADESA · timing óptimo verificado |
| Costo | Nómina −8% retiro voluntario ~280 emp. | 90-180d | −$73M/año | Retiro voluntario · sin liquidaciones masivas |
| Costo | Renegociar 8 contratos locación → %ing. | 90-180d | −$31M/año | Fijos → % del ingreso · riesgo compartido |
| Costo | Licitación póliza flotilla AXA/GNP | 90-180d | −$18-30M/año | Deducible agregado anual · 4 aseguradoras |
| Ingreso | Canal directo 35%→40% + AVASA Club | 180d+ | −$25M comis. | WhatsApp Bot + email retargeting · 5% desc. |
| Ingreso | RMS dinámico 3 niveles tarifarios | 180d+ | +$45-70M/año | +10% ADR · sin software costoso |
Trayectoria de Ingresos 2024–2028
🎯 Plan de Acción
20 iniciativas priorizadas · 0-90d / 90-180d / 180d+ · Impacto estimado MXN · Dificultad y escenario
20 Iniciativas — Priorizadas por Impacto y Facilidad
Impacto E1 total 2026: ~+$356M · Impacto E2 adicional: ~+$200M
| # | Acción | Dificultad | Horizonte | Impacto | Escenario | Fundamento CFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renovar Element Fleet — URGENTE | URGENTE | 0-90d | $0 (igual costo) | E1+E2 | Vence MAY-2026. Sin renovar: −1,320 uds = −$73M/año. ACCIÓN HOY. |
| 2 | Activar CDW $150/día + TP $110/día — 62 plazas | FÁCIL | 0-90d | +$32M/año | E1+E2 | Capacitar mostrador 2h. Margen 65-80%. Cero inversión. |
| 3 | EPD: $982→$1,100/día en plazas util>75% | FÁCIL | 0-90d | +$16M/año | E1+E2 | Solo ajuste tarifario. Sin inversión. 15 plazas en rango. |
| 4 | Auditoría forense GDA Aeropuerto (72h) | FÁCIL | 0-90d | +$41M/año | E1+E2 | GDA −41% YoY. 2a plaza del país. Causa raíz oculta urgente. |
| 5 | Vender 400u >36m (ABR-MAY timing óptimo) | MEDIA | 0-90d | +$35M flujo | E1+E2 | Manheim/ADESA. ~$88K/u promedio. Reduce mant. $4.8M/año. |
| 6 | Google My Business + fotos 62 plazas | FÁCIL | 0-90d | +$3M/año | E1+E2 | Cero costo. Reservas directas +5-8%. 2 semanas implementación. |
| 7 | Nómina −8% retiro voluntario (~280 emp.) | MEDIA | 90-180d | −$73M/año | E1 | Retiro voluntario. Sin liquidaciones. Digitalizar check-in. |
| 8 | Renegociar 8 contratos locación → %ing. | MEDIA | 90-180d | −$31M/año | E1+E2 | Fijos → % del ingreso. Riesgo compartido con arrendador. |
| 9 | CDW $170 + TP $130 estándar (capacitación) | MEDIA | 90-180d | +$35-55M/año | E1+E2 | Mayor que fase 1. CONDUSEF compliant. Margen 65-80%. |
| 10 | Refinanciar deuda CP→LP: TIIE+3% | DIFÍCIL | 90-180d | −$16M/año int. | E1+E2 | BBVA/NAFIN. Reduce vencimientos CP. Mejora liquidez inmediata. |
| 11 | Licitación póliza flotilla AXA/GNP/Qualitas | MEDIA | 90-180d | −$18-30M/año | E1+E2 | Deducible agregado anual. 4 aseguradoras. 10-15% ahorro. |
| 12 | Vender 400u adicionales >30m (SEP-OCT) | MEDIA | 90-180d | +$35M flujo | E1 | Segunda ventana anual óptima. Total 800u vendidas 2026. |
| 13 | RMS básico: 3 niveles tarifarios/temporada | DIFÍCIL | 180d+ | +$45-70M/año | E1+E2 | Sin software costoso: Excel + reglas documentadas. +10% ADR. |
| 14 | AVASA Business corporativo PYME | MEDIA | 180d+ | +$40-60M/año | E1 | Sin depósito, factura directa. EPD corporativo $800+. |
| 15 | Canal directo 35%→40% + AVASA Club | FÁCIL | 180d+ | +$25M/año | E1+E2 | Descuento 5% registrados. Ahorra comisión OTA equivalente. |
| 16 | Compra 400 uds nuevas E1 (APR-MAY) | MEDIA | 180d+ | Renueva flota | E1 | Financiado con flujo de ventas. Categorías A/B/C. |
| 17 | Acuerdos buyback Nissan/VW 1,000u/año | DIFÍCIL | 180d+ | −$15M dep./año | E1 | Elimina riesgo VR. Reduce TCO en ciclos futuros. |
| 18 | Canal corporativo meta 30% del ingreso | MUY DIFÍCIL | 180d+ | +$80-120M/año | E2 | KAMs dedicados + AVASA Business + producto competitivo. |
| 19 | Cerrar 3-4 locaciones con pérdida | MEDIA | 180d+ | −$8-12M/año | E1+E2 | Ensenada, N.Laredo, Uruapan, Piedras Negras. Confirmados. |
| 20 | Cierre de flota a 11,800u E1 / 12,500u E2 | MEDIA | 180d+ | −$50M mant. | E1+E2 | Eliminar exceso post-venta. Meta E1: 28m avg. E2: 27m avg. |
📍 62 Plazas — FEB-2026
Ranking real DCR FEB-2026 · Utilización · RevDay · YoY vs FEB-2025 · Acción CFO
Ranking 62 Plazas
Por Zona
Top 10 Gráfica
62 Plazas — Ingreso FEB-2026 Real
Total: $256M · Util promedio: 71.6% · EPD prom: $982/día
| # | Plaza | Zona | Ing FEB-26 | Util% | RevDay | YoY | Acción |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cancun Aeropuerto | SUR | $49M | 85.0% | $118/día | -8.1% | 🟢 Expandir |
| 2 | Guadalajara Aeropuerto | PAC | $20M | 67.5% | $151/día | 2.0% | 🔴 Auditar |
| 3 | Monterrey Aeropuerto | NTE | $17M | 73.5% | $274/día | -11.4% | ✅ Mantener |
| 4 | San Jose del Cabo | PAC | $16M | 87.0% | $105/día | -22.8% | 🟢 Expandir |
| 5 | Mexico Aeropuerto | NTE | $16M | 71.5% | $159/día | -9.8% | ✅ Mantener |
| 6 | Merida | SUR | $15M | 76.9% | $88/día | 3.9% | ✅ Mantener |
| 7 | Puerto Vallarta | PAC | $7M | 76.2% | $164/día | -5.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 8 | Tijuana | PAC | $7M | 74.0% | $207/día | -9.1% | ✅ Mantener |
| 9 | Mexico Ciudad | NTE | $7M | 70.0% | $60/día | -2.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 10 | Tulum | SUR | $6M | 79.5% | $191/día | -26.3% | ✅ Mantener |
| 11 | Queretaro | NTE | $6M | 71.2% | $139/día | -9.9% | ✅ Mantener |
| 12 | Leon | NTE | $6M | 69.4% | $124/día | 2.0% | ✅ Mantener |
| 13 | Oaxaca | SUR | $5M | 82.7% | $175/día | -7.4% | ✅ Mantener |
| 14 | Morelia | NTE | $4M | 76.6% | $192/día | -11.1% | ✅ Mantener |
| 15 | Puerto Escondido | SUR | $4M | 75.4% | $142/día | 8.0% | ✅ Mantener |
| 16 | Veracruz | SUR | $4M | 66.4% | $133/día | -8.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 17 | Hermosillo | PAC | $4M | 71.3% | $116/día | -7.7% | ✅ Mantener |
| 18 | La Paz | PAC | $3M | 86.3% | $111/día | -15.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 19 | Ixtapa | PAC | $3M | 85.2% | $149/día | -7.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 20 | Villahermosa | SUR | $3M | 67.2% | $141/día | 1.1% | ✅ Mantener |
| 21 | Chetumal | SUR | $3M | 70.8% | $136/día | -5.3% | ✅ Mantener |
| 22 | Monterrey Ciudad | NTE | $3M | 81.4% | $140/día | -12.3% | ✅ Mantener |
| 23 | Chihuahua | NTE | $3M | 68.8% | $136/día | -11.6% | ✅ Mantener |
| 24 | Ciudad Juarez | NTE | $2M | 61.7% | $155/día | -9.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 25 | Tampico | NTE | $2M | 70.9% | $140/día | -9.3% | ✅ Mantener |
| 26 | Aifa Aeropuerto | NTE | $2M | 68.4% | $140/día | -9.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 27 | San Luis Potosi | NTE | $2M | 73.3% | $149/día | -9.8% | ✅ Mantener |
| 28 | Guadalajara Ciudad | PAC | $2M | 77.6% | $122/día | -9.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 29 | Mexicali | PAC | $2M | 62.6% | $148/día | -4.9% | ✅ Mantener |
| 30 | Culiacan | PAC | $2M | 80.1% | $139/día | 7.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 31 | Tuxtla | SUR | $2M | 69.8% | $126/día | 8.6% | ✅ Mantener |
| 32 | Mazatlan | PAC | $2M | 77.7% | $92/día | -20.8% | ✅ Mantener |
| 33 | Manzanillo | PAC | $2M | 75.9% | $156/día | -9.7% | ✅ Mantener |
| 34 | Cozumel | SUR | $2M | 88.5% | $127/día | -10.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 35 | Acapulco | PAC | $2M | 61.0% | $137/día | -8.4% | ✅ Mantener |
| 36 | Zacatecas | NTE | $2M | 70.4% | $127/día | -9.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 37 | Aguascalientes | NTE | $2M | 63.6% | $125/día | -11.4% | ✅ Mantener |
| 38 | Reynosa | NTE | $1M | 54.2% | $167/día | -10.1% | ✅ Mantener |
| 39 | Los Mochis | PAC | $1M | 71.1% | $155/día | -7.7% | ✅ Mantener |
| 40 | Coatzacoalcos | SUR | $1M | 67.4% | $141/día | -9.4% | ✅ Mantener |
| 41 | Loreto | PAC | $1M | 86.2% | $139/día | -15.0% | ✅ Mantener |
| 42 | Toluca | NTE | $970K | 86.7% | $137/día | -11.0% | ✅ Mantener |
| 43 | Torreon | PAC | $925K | 62.5% | $115/día | -16.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 44 | Tapachula | SUR | $920K | 66.9% | $139/día | -9.1% | ✅ Mantener |
| 45 | Durango | PAC | $852K | 74.9% | $128/día | -11.3% | ✅ Mantener |
| 46 | Campeche | SUR | $827K | 73.3% | $152/día | -8.0% | ✅ Mantener |
| 47 | Mazatlan-Aeropuerto | PAC | $825K | 45.9% | $92/día | -24.8% | ✅ Mantener |
| 48 | Tepic | PAC | $815K | 81.0% | $168/día | -8.7% | ✅ Mantener |
| 49 | Colima | PAC | $813K | 76.5% | $162/día | -6.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 50 | Saltillo | NTE | $772K | 72.5% | $117/día | -24.0% | ✅ Mantener |
| 51 | Cuernavaca | NTE | $754K | 73.4% | $122/día | 24.8% | ✅ Mantener |
| 52 | Cabo San Lucas | PAC | $725K | 71.4% | $150/día | 13.4% | ✅ Mantener |
| 53 | Ciudad Obregon | PAC | $664K | 67.8% | $143/día | -24.4% | ✅ Mantener |
| 54 | Pachuca | NTE | $489K | 77.0% | $116/día | -15.2% | ✅ Mantener |
| 55 | Nuevo Laredo | NTE | $451K | 45.7% | $298/día | 6.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 56 | Ensenada | PAC | $432K | 79.2% | $184/día | 2.9% | ✅ Mantener |
| 57 | Piedras Negras | NTE | $408K | 62.3% | $140/día | -2.6% | ✅ Mantener |
| 58 | Uruapan | NTE | $379K | 67.3% | $94/día | -25.0% | ✅ Mantener |
| 59 | Ciudad del Carmen | SUR | $347K | 63.4% | $101/día | -6.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 60 | Ciudad del Carmen-2 | SUR | $347K | 63.4% | $101/día | -6.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 61 | Tepic-Ciudad | PAC | $280K | 58.0% | $95/día | -12.5% | ✅ Mantener |
| 62 | Extra | PAC | $180K | 55.0% | $88/día | -7.7% | ✅ Mantener |
Resumen por Zona
| Zona | Plazas | Ing FEB-26 | %Total | Util% Prom |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUR | 15 | $96M | 37.3% | 73.1% |
| PAC | 25 | $81M | 31.7% | 72.5% |
| NTE | 22 | $80M | 31.1% | 69.5% |
Top 10 Plazas por Ingreso FEB-2026
📐 Razones Financieras
22 KPIs · 2024-2025 Real · E1/E2 Meta · Benchmark MX/Global · Lectura CFO directa
Razones Financieras — Comparativo
Fuentes: EEFF Auditado DIC-2025 · P&L Dirección · DCR FEB-2026
| Razón | 2025 Real | 2024 Real | E1 Meta | E2 Meta | Benchmark | Lectura CFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ─── LIQUIDEZ ─── | ||||||
| Razón Corriente (AC÷PC) | 0.38x | 0.39x | 0.75x | 0.90x | 1.2–1.8x | 🔴 0.38x. Activo circ. $921M vs Pasivo CP $2,405M. Quiebra técnica de liquidez. |
| Prueba Ácida | 0.21x | — | 0.28x | 0.46x | 0.8–1.2x | 🔴 0.21x. Solo efectivo+CxC. Crisis severa. |
| Capital de Trabajo MXN | -1484M | — | ($450M) | ($200M) | Positivo | 🔴 −$1,484M. Negativo profundo. Riesgo estructural. |
| Días de Caja | 32 días | — | 35d | 45d | 30–60 días | 🔴 32 días. Mínimo operativo. Sin margen de error. |
| ─── RENTABILIDAD ─── | ||||||
| Margen Bruto % | 69.4% | 75.6% | 73% | 76% | 75–80% | 🟡 69.4% en 2025 vs 75.6% en 2024. Deterioro de 6.2pp. |
| Margen EBITDA % | -5.2% | 3.4% | 9.6% | 18.5% | 18–28% MX | 🔴 −5.3% en 2025. Brecha de 23pp vs bench mín. Gap ~$900M/año. |
| Margen Operativo % | -8.6% | -3.2% | −2.5% | +1.4% | 10–18% MX | 🔴 −8.6% en 2025. Gastos op $1,977M consumieron toda UB. |
| Margen Neto % | -17.7% | -8.0% | -3.5% | 1.8% | 5–10% MX | 🔴 −17.7%. Pérdida neta $683M. Aceleración del deterioro. |
| ROA (UtilNeta÷Activos) | -14.1% | — | −2.4% | +1.4% | 3–8% | 🔴 −14.1%. Activos $4,856M destruyen valor sistemáticamente. |
| ─── ENDEUDAMIENTO ─── | ||||||
| Pasivo÷Activos | 89.7% | — | 78% | 73% | 50–65% | 🔴 89.7%. Por cada $100 activo, $90 es deuda. |
| Cobertura Intereses | -0.64x | 0.52x | 1.02x | 2.41x | ≥ 3.0x | 🔴 −0.64x. EBITDA negativo no cubre $316M intereses. |
| Deuda LP ÷ Capital | 3.87x | — | 2.8x | 2.3x | <2.0x | 🔴 3.87x. Apalancamiento extremo. |
| ─── OPERATIVOS ─── | ||||||
| Utilización Flota % | 72.1% | 76.2% | 76.5% | 80.0% | 72–83% MX | ✅ 72.1%. En rango mínimo. CUN 85% · SJD 86% · La Paz 92%. |
| EPD Efectivo/Día | $137/día | $149/día | $1,100 | $1,250 | $700–1,200 MX | 🔴 $137 anual vs bench $700. CDW/TP activa FEB-26: $982. Gap $563/día. |
| RevPAU $/día disponible | $99/día | $113/día | $841 | $1,000 | $800–1,200 MX | 🔴 $99/día. 8x por debajo del bench superior. |
| LOR Duración Renta | 4.95 días | 4.51 días | 5.1d | 5.2d | 4.5–7.0d | ✅ 4.95 días. En rango. Corporativo elevará con E2. |
| Nómina ÷ Ingresos | 23.6% | 23.3% | 26.2%* | 20.8% | 9–14% Global | 🔴 23.6%. 2.5x el bench global. Exceso ~$350M/año. |
| RPU $/unidad/mes | $23,201 | $24,003 | $22,602 | $24,506 | $27,000+ MX | 🔴 $23,201. −16% vs bench US. Raíz: EPD bajo. |
| Antigüedad Prom. Flota | 32m | 28m | 30m | 27m | <30m | 🔴 ~32m. Cada mes >30m: +$1,200/u/mes mantenimiento. |
💳 Crédito y Finanzas
3 líneas activas al 20-MAR-2026 · Antigüedad flota · Balance DIC-2025 auditado
Líneas de Crédito — 20-MAR-2026
Total líneas: $2.21B · Disponible: $208M (9.4%) · EMERGENCIA DE LIQUIDEZ
| Financiera | Línea Total | Saldo Usado | Disponible | % Disp. | Tasa | Vencimiento | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR Finance México | $1.00B | $862M | $138M | 13.8% | 11.42% | NOV-2026 | 🟡 |
| Element Fleet Mgmt | $812M | $760M | $53M | 6.5% | 10.00% | MAY-2026 | 🔴 |
| Santander México | $400M | $382M | $18M | 4.5% | 9.50% | SEP-2026 | 🔴 |
| TOTAL | $2.21B | $2.00B | $208M | 9.4% | Solo 9.4% disponible — EMERGENCIA | ||
Antigüedad de Flota — Estimada
| Rango | Uds Est. | % | Acción |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–12m nuevos | ~1,249 | 9.0% | 🟢 MANTENER — Mejor RevPAU |
| 13–24m óptimos | ~3,679 | 26.5% | 🟢 MANTENER — Ciclo rentable |
| 25–36m (vender) | ~6,316 | 45.5% | 🟡 PROGRAMAR VENTA ABR-MAY |
| >36m (urgente) | ~2,638 | 19.0% | 🔴 VENDER INMEDIATO — +$1,200/u/mes mant. |
| Leasing Element | ~1,319 | 9.5% | 🔴 RENOVAR — Vence MAY-2026 |
Balance General — DIC-2025 Auditado
| Cuenta | Importe | % Activos |
|---|---|---|
| Efectivo y Equiv. | $285M | 5.9% |
| CxC Clientes | $216M | 4.5% |
| Impuestos por rec. | $332M | 6.8% |
| Total Activo Circ. | $921M | 19.0% |
| PPE Neto (Flota) | $3.91B | 80.6% |
| TOTAL ACTIVO | $4.86B | 100% |
| Deuda CP | $929M | 19.1% |
| Total Pasivo CP | $2.40B | 49.5% |
| Deuda LP | $1.93B | 39.8% |
| TOTAL PASIVO | $4.36B | 89.7% |
| Capital Contable | $499M | 10.3% |
🏢 Costo de Rentas
Total real 2025: $525M (13.6% ingresos) · E1 meta: $493M · E2 meta: $441M
Costo Anual 2025
$525M
13.6% de ingresos · bench 8-12%
Meta E1 2026
$493M
Ahorro: $31M vs 2025
Meta E2 2026
$441M
Ahorro: $84M vs 2025
Por Tipo de Locación
Ahorro potencial: $31M/año E1 · $46M/año E2
| Tipo | Plazas | Anual | % Total | Modelo Actual | Bench | Ahorro Est. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeropuertos concesionados (ASUR/GAP/OMA) | 22 | $289M | 55.1% | % del ingreso 12-18% | 10-15% | $10M/año |
| Ciudades — locales arrendados | 28 | $184M | 35.0% | Renta fija mensual | 3-6% ing. | $3M/año |
| Hoteles y zonas turísticas | 8 | $36M | 6.9% | % + mínimo | 5-8% | $362K/año |
| CDMX aeropuerto (concesión especial) | 4 | $16M | 3.0% | Fijo + cuota operativa | 4-7% | $79K/año |
Top 15 Locaciones por Costo/mes
| Plaza | Tipo | Costo/mes | Ing. Asoc./mes | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancun Aeropuerto | ASUR | $8M/mes | $49M/mes | 6x |
| Monterrey Aeropuerto | GAP | $6M/mes | $17M/mes | 3x |
| Mexico Aeropuerto | GAP | $6M/mes | $16M/mes | 3x |
| Guadalajara Aeropuerto | GAP | $5M/mes | $20M/mes | 4x |
| San Jose del Cabo | GAP | $4M/mes | $16M/mes | 4x |
| Merida | GAP | $3M/mes | $15M/mes | 5x |
| Tijuana | OMA | $2M/mes | $7M/mes | 3x |
| Puerto Vallarta | GAP | $2M/mes | $7M/mes | 4x |
| Mexico Ciudad | Ciudad | $2M/mes | $7M/mes | 4x |
| Queretaro | Ciudad | $2M/mes | $6M/mes | 4x |
| Hermosillo | GAP | $1M/mes | $4M/mes | 3x |
| Chihuahua | GAP | $1M/mes | $3M/mes | 2x |
| Leon | Ciudad | $1M/mes | $6M/mes | 5x |
| Ciudad Juarez | OMA | $1M/mes | $2M/mes | 2x |
| Puebla | Ciudad | $980K/mes | $3M/mes | 3x |
🚗 Inventario de Flota
13,882 uds operativas · 6 categorías A-F · Antigüedad promedio ~32m · Element Fleet vence MAY-2026 🔴
Flota Total Operativa
13,882
Activo fijo 12,562 + Arrendamiento 1,320
Element Fleet (Leasing)
1,320 uds
🔴 Vence MAY-2026 — RENOVAR AHORA
Antigüedad Promedio
~32 meses
Bench <30m · Cada mes >30m: +$1,200/u mant.
Unidades >36m Urgente
~3,662
26% de flota · Vender antes garantía vence
Composición por Categoría
| Cat. | Modelo Ref. | Uds Est. | % | P.Flotilla | Antigüedad | % Financ. | Acreedor / Tasa |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat A | Nissan Versa / Chevrolet Aveo | 4,582 | 33.0% | $365K | 28m | 72.0% | NR Finance / Element · TIIE+3.2% |
| Cat B | Nissan Sentra / VW Vento | 3,330 | 24.0% | $418K | 31m | 68.0% | Element Fleet / NR Finance · TIIE+3.0% |
| Cat C | VW Jetta / Toyota Corolla | 2,499 | 18.0% | $428K | 33m | 65.0% | Element Fleet / Santander · TIIE+3.5% |
| Cat D | Nissan Kicks / VW Taos | 2,082 | 15.0% | $403K | 30m | 70.0% | NR Finance · TIIE+3.2% |
| Cat E | Toyota Corolla Cross / T-Cross | 971 | 7.0% | $531K | 26m | 60.0% | Santander / NR Finance · TIIE+3.8% |
| Cat F | Nissan Frontier / Pickup | 418 | 3.0% | $465K | 35m | 75.0% | NR Finance · TIIE+4.0% |
| TOTAL | 13,882 | 100% | |||||
Precios y Valores Residuales MAR-2026
Web scraping verificado · motorpasion.com.mx · autosactual.mx · telediario.mx
| Cat. | Precio Lista | P.Flotilla | VR 24m | VR 30m | VR 36m | Dep.Acum.36m |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat A | $390K | $365K | $280K | $259K | $243K | 33.4% |
| Cat B | $445K | $418K | $318K | $293K | $272K | 34.9% |
| Cat C | $463K | $428K | $323K | $298K | $276K | 35.5% |
| Cat D | $435K | $403K | $310K | $287K | $265K | 34.2% |
| Cat E | $567K | $531K | $414K | $385K | $357K | 32.8% |
| Cat F | $498K | $465K | $349K | $321K | $295K | 36.6% |
🔄 Plan Compra-Venta 2026
Estado de cuenta mensual E1/E2 · Timing óptimo ABR-MAY y SEP-OCT · Precios web scraping MAR-2026
E1 Venta Total
$216M
800 unidades vendidas
E1 Compra Total
$164M
400 unidades nuevas
E1 Flujo Neto
$52M
Venta > Compra en E1
E2 Flujo Neto
($6M)
1200 ventas / 800 compras
E1 — Detalle por Categoría
E2 — Detalle por Categoría
Flujo Mensual Consolidado
E1 Conservador — 800 ventas / 400 compras
| Categoría | ENE | FEB | MAR | ABR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AGO | SEP | OCT | NOV | DIC | Total Año |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat A Ventas | — | — | — | 65 | 65 | — | — | — | 55 | 55 | 20 | — | 260u/$63M |
| Cat A Compras | — | — | 45 | 45 | 40 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 130u/$47M |
| Cat B Ventas | — | — | — | 40 | 40 | — | — | — | 50 | 50 | 20 | — | 200u/$54M |
| Cat B Compras | — | — | 30 | 35 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 100u/$42M |
| Cat C Ventas | — | — | — | — | 40 | 40 | — | — | — | 35 | 35 | — | 150u/$41M |
| Cat C Compras | — | — | — | 35 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 70u/$30M |
| Cat D Ventas | — | — | — | 25 | 25 | — | — | — | 25 | 25 | — | — | 100u/$26M |
| Cat D Compras | — | — | 20 | 20 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 60u/$24M |
| Cat E Ventas | — | — | — | — | 25 | 25 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | 60u/$21M |
| Cat E Compras | — | — | 15 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30u/$16M |
| Cat F Ventas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | — | — | 30u/$9M |
| Cat F Compras | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | 10u/$5M |
E2 Moderado — 1,200 ventas / 800 compras
| Categoría | ENE | FEB | MAR | ABR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AGO | SEP | OCT | NOV | DIC | Total Año |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat A Ventas | 30 | 30 | — | 75 | 75 | — | — | — | 80 | 80 | 50 | — | 420u/$102M |
| Cat A Compras | — | 50 | 65 | 65 | 40 | 20 | — | — | — | 40 | — | — | 280u/$102M |
| Cat B Ventas | 20 | 20 | — | 55 | 55 | — | — | — | 55 | 55 | 40 | — | 300u/$82M |
| Cat B Compras | — | 35 | 50 | 55 | 35 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 200u/$84M |
| Cat C Ventas | — | — | — | 45 | 45 | — | — | — | 50 | 50 | 30 | — | 220u/$61M |
| Cat C Compras | — | — | 40 | 50 | 30 | 20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 140u/$60M |
| Cat D Ventas | — | — | — | 40 | 40 | — | — | — | 40 | 40 | — | — | 160u/$42M |
| Cat D Compras | — | — | 30 | 35 | 30 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 110u/$44M |
| Cat E Ventas | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | 10 | — | — | 15 | 15 | — | — | 70u/$25M |
| Cat E Compras | — | — | 15 | 20 | 15 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 60u/$32M |
| Cat F Ventas | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15 | 15 | — | — | 30u/$9M |
| Cat F Compras | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | 10u/$5M |
Flujo Neto Mensual E1 vs E2
| Mes | E1 Ventas | E1 Compras | E1 Neto | E2 Neto |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENE | 0u / $0K | 0u / $0K | $0K | $13M |
| FEB | 0u / $0K | 0u / $0K | $0K | ($20M) |
| MAR | 0u / $0K | 110u / $45M | ($45M) | ($82M) |
| ABR | 130u / $33M | 150u / $62M | ($29M) | ($31M) |
| MAY | 195u / $53M | 130u / $52M | $995K | ($565K) |
| JUN | 65u / $20M | 0u / $0K | $20M | ($34M) |
| JUL | 10u / $4M | 0u / $0K | $4M | $0K |
| AGO | 0u / $0K | 5u / $2M | ($2M) | ($2M) |
| SEP | 145u / $38M | 5u / $2M | $36M | $66M |
| OCT | 180u / $48M | 0u / $0K | $48M | $54M |
| NOV | 75u / $20M | 0u / $0K | $20M | $31M |
| DIC | 0u / $0K | 0u / $0K | $0K | $0K |
🌐 Benchmark Global + Valuación
Hertz FY2025 · Avis FY2024 · Sixt FY2024 · Localiza 4Q2024 · EEFF públicos verificados · Valuación 5 métodos
Comparables Globales
Brechas AVASA
Valuación
Comparables Industria Global
| Empresa | Flota | Ingresos | EBITDA% | DPU/mes | Nóm÷Ing | Util% | Fuente |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertz (HTZ) FY2025 | 530K | $8.50B USD | Negativo FY25 | $300 USD/u/mes | ~9.8% | 81% | HTZ 8-K Annual FY2025 |
| Avis Budget (CAR) FY2024 | ~490K | $11.80B USD | 5.3% ($628M) | ~$380 USD/u/mes | ~10.2% | 82% | CAR 8-K FY2024 |
| Sixt SE (SIX2) FY2024 | 184K | EUR 4.0B | 36.5% | ~$240 USD/u/mes | ~8.5% | 87% | Sixt AR2024 |
| Localiza (RENT3) 4Q2024 | 638K+ | R$21.6B | 65.6% Car Rental | ~$185 USD/u/mes | ~7.2% | 79.9% | RENT3 4Q2024 IR |
| AVASA 2025 Real | 13,882 | $3.86B | -5.2% | $137 MXN/día | 23.6% | 72.1% | EEFF Auditado DIC-2025 |
| AVASA E1 Meta 2026 | 11,800 | $3.52B | 9.6% | $1,100/día meta | — | 76.5% | Proyección E1 corregida |
| AVASA E2 Meta 2026 | 12,500 | $3.72B | 18.5% | $1,250/día meta | — | 80.0% | Proyección E2 corregida |
Brechas AVASA vs Benchmark — Cuantificadas MXN
| KPI | AVASA 2025 | Bench MX | Bench Global | Brecha Est. | Palanca CFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margen EBITDA | -5.2% | 18–28% MX | 25–30% Global | ~$900M/año gap | CDW+TP activo = palanca #1 |
| EPD/Día | $137 anual | $700–1,200 MX | $900–2,000 Global | ~$550M/año potencial | CDW $170+TP $130 activar inmediato |
| Nómina÷Ing. | 23.6% | 14–18% MX | 9–10% Global | ~$360M/año exceso | E1: −8% / E2: −20% retiro |
| Util. Flota | 72.1% | 72–83% MX | 75–85% Global | En rango ✅ | Mantener. CUN 85% / SJD 86%. |
| Antigüedad Flota | 32m | <30m MX | <24m Global | $50M extra mant. | Plan venta urgente 800-1,200u |
| RPU/Unidad/Mes | $23K | $25K-35K MX | $27,580 (HTZ USD) | -15.9% vs HTZ | Causa raíz: EPD bajo |
Valuación Referencial — 5 Métodos
Dealstream 2025 · Comparable Transactions · Con base en escenarios corregidos E1/E2
| Método | Base | Rango EV | Notas CFO |
|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA E1 2026 | EBITDA E1: $338M | $1.18B – $1.52B | Alta si EBITDA sostenido |
| EV/EBITDA E2 2026 | EBITDA E2: $687M | $2.75B – $3.44B | Hertz afiliado + aeropuertos ASUR/GAP |
| EV/Revenue E1 | Ing. E1: $3.52B | $1.41B – $2.47B | 0.4–1.0x bench. Nacional ~0.6x |
| Asset-Based | PPE neto: $3.91B | $3.52B – $3.91B | Floor value. Sin goodwill/marca. |
| EV/Unidad | 13,882 uds activas | $2,500–5,000 USD/u → $34–69M USD | Bench global. Flota <60 días disp. |
| CONCLUSIÓN CFO | Con corrección E2 | $1.50B – $2.50B MXN | Sin corrección: valor de rescate flota ~$3.9B |