Diagnostico Ejecutivo
Resumen Ejecutivo
🔴
Diagnostico 2025 Real: Perdida neta −$683.1M · EBITDA P&L Dir −$203.9M (-5.2%) · Nomina 23.6% (bench 9-14pct) · Dep 10.8pct/año · Perdida venta autos −$369.9M
Perdida Neta 2025
−$683.1M
Margen -17.7%
EBITDA 2025 (P&L Dir)
−$203.9M
Margen -5.2%
ENE-2026 Real
$418.4M
90.9% del presupuesto
Proy 2026 sin accion
$2.25B
-43.5% vs ppto
Caja DIC-2025
$284.8M
-$223M vs DIC-2024
Credito disponible
9.4%
$208.1M de $2.21B
Utilizacion FEB-26
72.1%
Bench 72-83pct OK
EPD Promedio
$137/dia
Bench $700+ — Gap critico
Semaforo de Salud
P&L / Rentabilidad
Critico
Perdida neta 2025: −$683.1M. EBITDA −$203.9M (-5.2%). Bench 18-28%.
Tendencia Ingresos
Critico
2025: $3.86B. Proy 2026 sin accion: $2.25B (-43.5% vs ppto).
Utilizacion Flota
En Rango
FEB-26: 72.1%. Bench 72-83% OK. CUN 85pct, SJD 87pct.
EPD y Ancillary
Critico
EPD FEB-26: $137/dia vs bench $700-1,200. Gap enorme. Ancillary ausente.
Canal Directo
Critico
~35pct directo vs bench 40pct minimo. 65pct OTAs a 15-22pct comision.
Estructura Costos
Critico
Nomina $911.1M = 23.6% vs bench 9-14pct. Exceso ~$360M/año.
Caja y Liquidez
Critico
Efectivo DIC-25: $284.8M (-$223M vs 2024). Credito disponible 9.4%.
Antiguedad Flota
Atencion
~32 meses est. Bench menos de 30m. +$1,200/u/mes mant. correctivo sobre 36m.
Venta Seminuevos
Critico
Perdida 2025: −$369.9M. Dep 10.8pct/año vs 18pct real Libro Azul.
Totales por Ano — Real vs Escenarios 2026-2028
Comparativo Anual — 2024 Real · 2025 Real · E1 2026/27/28 · E2 2026/27/28 (MXN)
Proyecciones E1/E2 calculadas sobre datos reales ENE-2026 · EEFF Auditados DIC-2025
| Indicador | 2024 Real | 2025 Real | E1 2026 | E1 2027 | E1 2028 | E2 2026 | E2 2027 | E2 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS | $3.89B | $3.86B | $2.43B | $2.57B | $2.70B | $2.65B | $2.97B | $3.27B |
| EBITDA | $131.1M | −$203.9M | $233.1M | $398.9M | $527.0M | $490.8M | $802.2M | $1.02B |
| Margen EBITDA | 3.4% | -5.2% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 19.5% | 18.5% | 27.0% | 31.2% |
| UTILIDAD/PERDIDA NETA | −$312.0M | −$683.1M | −$85.0M | $64.3M | $167.6M | $47.8M | $213.9M | $385.7M |
| Margen Neto | -8.0% | -17.7% | -3.5% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 7.2% | 11.8% |
| Nomina Total | $907.6M | $911.1M | $838.2M | $813.1M | $796.3M | $728.9M | $707.0M | $692.5M |
| Rentas Locaciones | $509.2M | $524.6M | $493.1M | $468.5M | $453.7M | $440.7M | $409.8M | $396.6M |
| Flota activa (uds) | $13,500 | $13,882 | $11,800 | $11,800 | $12,200 | $12,500 | $13,000 | $13,500 |
| EPD objetivo ($/dia) | — | $137 | $760 | $798 | — | $860 | $929 | — |
Alertas Prioritarias CFO
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CRITICO
Lineas credito: solo 9.4% disponible ($208.1M de $2.21B)
Element Fleet vence MAY-2026. $52.7M disponible. EMERGENCIA.
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CRITICO
Proyeccion 2026 sin accion: $2.25B vs ppto $3.98B
Deficit −$1.73B (-43.5%). Turnaround urgente.
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CRITICO
EPD $137/dia vs benchmark $700-1,200/dia
Ancillary ausente. CDW/TP sin escalar. Potencial +$550M/año.
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CRITICO
Nomina 23.6% de ingresos vs bench 9-14pct
$911.1M/año. Exceso ~$360M/año.
🟠
ALERTA
GDA Aeropuerto: -41pct YoY · Util 67.5pct
$20.2M a $13.8M/mes. Auditoria 72h urgente.
🟠
FORENSE
Nuevo Laredo: util 45.7pct + Noshow 37.3pct
Combinacion anormal. Posible fraude. Cruzar GPS/cobros/CFDI.
Estado de Resultados
P&L Detallado
⚠️
Lectura CFO: El problema real NO es el margen bruto (69.4%) sino los gastos de operacion ($1.98B = 51.2% de ingresos) + perdida venta autos (−$369.9M por dep 10.8pct vs 18pct real). E1 y E2 atacan ambos problemas directamente.
Ingresos 2025
$3.86B
-0.6% vs 2024
EBITDA 2025
−$203.9M
Margen -5.2%
E1 EBITDA 2026
$233.1M
Margen 9.6%
E2 EBITDA 2026
$490.8M
Margen 18.5%
P&L Comparativo — 2024 Real · 2025 Real · E1 2026/27/28 · E2 2026/27/28 (MXN)
Proyecciones E1/E2 basadas en datos reales ENE-2026 y plan de accion por horizonte
| Concepto | 2024 Real | 2025 Real | E1 2026 | E1 2027 | E1 2028 | E2 2026 | E2 2027 | E2 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS NETOS POR RENTAS | $3.89B | $3.86B | $2.43B | $2.57B | $2.70B | $2.65B | $2.97B | $3.27B |
| (-) Costo por Rentas | $948.8M | $1.16B | $645.9M | $676.9M | $702.6M | $663.2M | $725.0M | $777.9M |
| Depreciacion (10.8pct fija) | $419.6M | $456.9M | $420.4M | $411.2M | $402.1M | $402.1M | $388.4M | $374.7M |
| Intereses Financiamiento | $254.0M | $316.2M | $300.4M | $284.6M | $268.8M | $268.8M | $246.6M | $227.6M |
| Seguro de Flota | $228.3M | $268.1M | $257.4M | $252.0M | $246.6M | $249.3M | $241.3M | $233.2M |
| UTILIDAD BRUTA | $2.94B | $2.71B | $1.78B | $1.90B | $2.00B | $1.99B | $2.25B | $2.49B |
| Margen Bruto | 75.6% | 69.4% | 73.4% | 73.7% | 74.0% | 75.0% | 75.6% | 76.2% |
| (-) Gastos Variables | $455.5M | $404.0M | $228.2M | $231.6M | $232.4M | $217.5M | $231.8M | $241.9M |
| Mantenimiento Flota | $250.0M | $231.8M | $204.0M | $197.0M | $190.1M | $173.8M | $166.9M | $162.2M |
| Comisiones Agencias | $205.5M | $172.2M | $155.0M | $151.6M | $146.4M | $141.2M | $134.4M | $127.5M |
| (-) Gastos de Operacion | $1.93B | $1.98B | $1.52B | $1.50B | $1.48B | $1.50B | $1.46B | $1.47B |
| Nomina y Salarios | $907.6M | $911.1M | $838.2M | $813.1M | $796.3M | $728.9M | $707.0M | $692.5M |
| Rentas de Locaciones | $509.2M | $524.6M | $493.1M | $468.5M | $453.7M | $440.7M | $409.8M | $396.6M |
| UTILIDAD OPERATIVA | −$123.6M | −$335.8M | $102.0M | $205.9M | $318.9M | $252.0M | $490.3M | $719.0M |
| Margen Operativo | -3.2% | -8.6% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 22.0% |
| Ing Venta Seminuevos | $1.06B | $923.2M | $157.8M | $167.3M | $175.7M | $172.4M | $193.1M | $212.4M |
| (-) Costo Venta Autos | $1.21B | $1.23B | $174.8M | $177.6M | $178.4M | $180.4M | $187.2M | $189.6M |
| Resultado Venta Autos | −$148.5M | −$369.9M | −$17.0M | −$10.3M | $2.7M | −$8.0M | $5.9M | $22.9M |
| EBITDA (P&L Direccion) | $131.1M | −$203.9M | $233.1M | $398.9M | $527.0M | $490.8M | $802.2M | $1.02B |
| Margen EBITDA | 3.4% | -5.2% | 9.6% | 15.5% | 19.5% | 18.5% | 27.0% | 31.2% |
| UTILIDAD (PERD) NETA | −$312.0M | −$683.1M | −$85.0M | $64.3M | $167.6M | $47.8M | $213.9M | $385.7M |
| Margen Neto | -8.0% | -17.7% | -3.5% | 2.5% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 7.2% | 11.8% |
ENE-2026 Real — Desglose de Ingresos (datos reales P&L Direccion 28-02-2026)
Arrendamiento T/Km
35.1%
$146.8M
Seguros CDW/TP/PAI
26.1%
$109.4M
Cuotas Aerop/Hotel
17.9%
$74.7M
Servicios Adicionales
13.7%
$57.5M
Cash Flow
Flujo de Efectivo — 3 Escenarios
⚠️
Sin Accion: Saldo minimo $738.0M en DIC-26 · E1 minimo: $886.0M · E2 minimo: $913.0M
Efectivo DIC-2025
$284.8M
-$223M vs DIC-2024
CF Operacion 2025
$16.7M
Solo $16.7M real
CF Inversion 2025
−$313.0M
Flota -$1,250M
Aportacion Socios 2025
+$300M
No recurrente
Saldo de Caja por Mes — 3 Escenarios (MXN Billones)
Basado en condiciones reales ENE-2026 con escala de estacionalidad 2025 · Saldo inicial: $284.8M
Tabla Comparativa de Saldos — 3 Escenarios (cada 4 meses)
| Escenario | ENE-26 | MAY-26 | SEP-26 | ENE-27 | MAY-27 | SEP-27 | Min. 24M | Saldo DIC-27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sin Accion | 0.812B | 0.889B | 0.800B | 1.209B | 1.117B | 1.030B | 0.738B | 0.970B |
| E1 Conserv. | 0.886B | 1.198B | 1.368B | 2.065B | 2.300B | 2.513B | 0.886B | 2.658B |
| E2 Moderado | 0.913B | 1.292B | 1.558B | 2.370B | 2.744B | 3.078B | 0.913B | 3.299B |
Totales Anuales por Escenario
| Escenario | Flujo Neto 2026 | Saldo DIC-2026 | Flujo Neto 2027 | Saldo DIC-2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sin Accion (SQ) | 0.452B | 0.738B | 0.231B | 0.970B |
| E1 Conserv. | 1.203B | 1.487B | 1.171B | 2.658B |
| E2 Moderado | 1.452B | 1.738B | 1.559B | 3.299B |
Flujo Real 2025 — EEFF Auditado
Flujo de Efectivo Real 2025 — EEFF Auditado DIC-2025
| Concepto | Importe MXN | Lectura CFO |
|---|---|---|
| FLUJO OPERACION | $16.7M | Solo $16.7M. No cubre ninguna inversion. |
| Perdida antes ISR | −$683.1M | Base. Perdida real del ejercicio. |
| + Depreciacion (no cash) | $456.9M | Ajuste positivo principal. |
| FLUJO INVERSION | −$313.0M | Reposicion neta de flota. |
| Compra PPE (flota nueva) | −$1.25B | $1,250.5M en compras brutas. |
| Cobros venta PPE | $923.2M | $923.2M por ventas de flota usada. |
| FLUJO FINANCIAMIENTO | $73.4M | Aportacion socios salvo el año. |
| Aportacion capital socios | $300.0M | $300M. No recurrente 2026. |
| Intereses pagados | −$350.3M | Costo real del financiamiento. |
| FLUJO NETO | −$222.9M | Caja cayo $223M en el año. |
| Efectivo fin DIC-2025 | $284.8M | Confirmado EEFF auditado. |
Forecasting
Modulo de Escenarios E1/E2
Comparativo General 2025 Real vs E1 vs E2
Comparativo — 2025 Real vs E1 Conservador vs E2 Moderado 2026
| Indicador | 2025 Real | E1 2026 | E2 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS TOTALES | $3.86B | $2.43B | $2.65B |
| EBITDA | −$203.9M | $233.1M | $490.8M |
| Margen EBITDA | -5.2% | 9.6% | 18.5% |
| UTILIDAD/PERD NETA | −$683.1M | −$85.0M | $47.8M |
| Margen Neto | -17.7% | -3.5% | 1.8% |
| Nomina Total | $911.1M | $838.2M | $728.9M |
| Delta Nomina vs 2025 | — | −$72.9M | −$182.2M |
| Rentas Locaciones | $524.6M | $493.1M | $440.7M |
| Flota activa (uds) | $13,882 | $11,800 | $12,500 |
| Utilizacion objetivo | 72.1% | 76.5% | 80.0% |
| EPD objetivo ($/dia) | $137 | $760 | $860 |
| RPU objetivo ($/u/mes) | $23,201 | $17,148 | $17,686 |
E1 Conservador — Palancas Detalladas
Palancas de E1 CONSERVADOR — Impacto % e Importe MXN
| Tipo | Palanca | Plazo | Impacto/ano | % sobre ing/costos | Dificultad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESO | Activar CDW $150/dia + TP $110/dia en 62 plazas | M3-4 | $32.0M | 1.0% | FACIL |
| INGRESO | Subir EPD +$30/dia en 15 plazas util>75pct | M3 | $9.0M | 0.3% | FACIL |
| INGRESO | GDA Aeropuerto: recuperar -41pct YoY | M2-3 | $76.0M | 2.4% | MEDIA |
| INGRESO | Canal directo 35pct->40pct (-5pp OTA) | M7-9 | $25.0M | 0.8% | FACIL |
| COSTO | Nomina -8pct retiro voluntario | M4-6 | $73.0M | 3.8% | MEDIA |
| COSTO | Renegociar 8-12 contratos locacion | M5-7 | $31.0M | 1.6% | MEDIA |
| COSTO | Refinanciar deuda CP->LP TIIE+3pct | M5-6 | $16.0M | 0.8% | DIFICIL |
| FLUJO | Vender 800u >36 meses | M2-9 | $215.8M | Flujo entrada | MEDIA |
| TOTAL IMPACTO E1 CONSERVADOR | $477.8M | Ing: $142.0M · Costo: $120.0M · Flujo: $215.8M | |||
P&L Mensual — E1 CONSERVADOR 2026
| Concepto | ENE | FEB | MAR | ABR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AGO | SEP | OCT | NOV | DIC | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS | $343.4M | $221.6M | $260.6M | $221.6M | $175.3M | $168.0M | $211.9M | $211.9M | $151.0M | $121.8M | $185.1M | $155.9M | $2.43B |
| EBITDA | $33.0M | $21.3M | $25.0M | $21.3M | $16.8M | $16.1M | $20.3M | $20.3M | $14.5M | $11.7M | $17.8M | $15.0M | $233.1M |
| Margen EBITDA | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% |
E2 Moderado — Palancas Detalladas
Palancas de E2 MODERADO — Impacto % e Importe MXN
| Tipo | Palanca | Plazo | Impacto/ano | % sobre ing/costos | Dificultad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESO | Activar CDW $150/dia + TP $110/dia en 62 plazas | M3-4 | $32.0M | 1.0% | FACIL |
| INGRESO | Subir EPD +$80/dia en 20 plazas util>75pct | M3 | $24.0M | 0.3% | FACIL |
| INGRESO | GDA Aeropuerto: recuperar -41pct YoY | M2-3 | $76.0M | 2.4% | MEDIA |
| INGRESO | Canal directo 35pct->40pct (-5pp OTA) | M4-9 | $42.0M | 0.8% | FACIL |
| COSTO | Nomina -20pct retiro voluntario | M1-6 | $182.0M | 9.4% | DIFICIL |
| COSTO | Renegociar 8-12 contratos locacion | M5-7 | $46.0M | 1.6% | MEDIA |
| COSTO | Refinanciar deuda CP->LP TIIE+3pct | M5-6 | $22.0M | 0.8% | DIFICIL |
| FLUJO | Vender 1200u >36 meses | M2-9 | $320.6M | Flujo entrada | MEDIA |
| INGRESO | AVASA Business corporativo PYME 15 ciudades | M4-6 | $75.0M | 2.1% | DIFICIL |
| INGRESO | RMS dinamico 3 niveles tarifarios | M4-6 | $80.0M | 2.3% | MEDIA |
| TOTAL IMPACTO E2 MODERADO | $899.6M | Ing: $329.0M · Costo: $250.0M · Flujo: $320.6M | |||
P&L Mensual — E2 MODERADO 2026
| Concepto | ENE | FEB | MAR | ABR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AGO | SEP | OCT | NOV | DIC | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INGRESOS | $375.2M | $242.1M | $284.7M | $242.1M | $191.6M | $183.6M | $231.5M | $231.5M | $165.0M | $133.0M | $202.2M | $170.3M | $2.65B |
| EBITDA | $69.4M | $44.8M | $52.7M | $44.8M | $35.4M | $34.0M | $42.8M | $42.8M | $30.5M | $24.6M | $37.4M | $31.5M | $490.8M |
| Margen EBITDA | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.5% |
Hoja de Ruta CFO
Plan de Accion 24 Meses
⚠️
Plan graduado: Los primeros 3 hitos son costo cero y alta certeza. Impacto acumulado estimado: E1: +$275-380M/año en 12M | E2: +$485-680M/año en 12M. Ejecutar por dificultad, no por impacto.
Hitos 0-90 dias (Caja)
7
Accion inmediata
Hitos 90-180 dias (Estructura)
6
Restructuracion operativa
Hitos 180+ dias (Crecimiento)
7
Crecimiento sostenible
Plan de Accion Completo — 20 Iniciativas con Dificultad, Impacto y Fundamento CFO
| Accion (Escenario · Horizonte · Plazo) | Dificultad | Ahorro/Ingreso | Fundamento CFO |
|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmar dep 10.8pct con auditores E1+E2 · 0-90d · M1 |
FACIL | $0 / +$200M P&L venta | Formalizar con auditores. Mejora VR flota subsecuentes. |
| RENOVAR Element Fleet — URGENTE E1+E2 · 0-90d · M1-2 |
URGENTE | $0 (mismo costo) | Vence MAY-2026. Sin renovar: perdida 1,320u = -$73M/año ingreso. |
| Auditoria 72h GDA Aeropuerto (-41pct YoY) E1+E2 · 0-90d · M2-3 |
FACIL | +$10-15M/mes | Equipo in-situ + cruce GPS/cobros/CFDI. |
| Vender 400-600u >36 meses (timing ABR-MAY) E1+E2 · 0-90d · M2-4 |
MEDIA | +$35-54M flujo | Manheim/ADESA/OLX. Precio est $88K-96K/u. |
| Subir EPD +$30-80/dia en plazas util>75pct E1+E2 · 0-90d · M3 |
FACIL | +$9-24M/año | Solo ajuste tarifa en sistema. Sin inversion. |
| CDW $150-200/dia + TP $110-160/dia 62 plazas E1+E2 · 0-90d · M3-4 |
FACIL | +$25-67M/año | Capacitar mostrador 2h. Margen 65-80pct. |
| Google My Business + fotos 62 plazas E1+E2 · 0-90d · M1 |
FACIL | +$2-4M/año | Cero costo. Reservas directas +5-8pct. |
| Reduccion nomina -8-20pct retiro voluntario E1+E2 · 90-180d · M4-6 |
MEDIA a DIFICIL | −$73-182M/año | E1: -8pct (~280 empleados). E2: -20pct (~700 empleados). |
| Renegociar 8-12 contratos locacion (top pct) E1+E2 · 90-180d · M5-7 |
MEDIA | −$31-46M/año | Rentas fijas -> pct del ingreso. Aeropuertos: riesgo compartido. |
| Refinanciar deuda CP->LP TIIE+3pct E1+E2 · 90-180d · M5-6 |
DIFICIL | −$16-22M/año | Mejora flujo inmediato. Garantia: flota libre de gravamen. |
| Canal directo 35pct->40-45pct + AVASA Club E1+E2 · 90-180d · M7-9 |
FACIL | −$25-42M comisiones | WhatsApp Bot + email retargeting + AVASA Club. |
| Vender 400u adicionales >30 meses (SEP-OCT) E1+E2 · 90-180d · M7-9 |
MEDIA | +$35-54M flujo | Segunda ventana optima del año. |
| AVASA Business corporativo PYME 15 ciudades E2 · 180+d · M4-6 |
DIFICIL | +$60-90M/año | EPD corporativo $800+. LOR 7+ dias. Factura directa. |
| RMS dinamico 3 niveles tarifarios E2 · 180+d · M4-6 |
MEDIA | +$45-80M/año | Sin software costoso: Excel + reglas. +10pct ADR. |
| Cerrar 3-4 locaciones con perdida confirmada E1+E2 · 180+d · M8-12 |
MEDIA | −$8-12M/año | Candidatas: Ensenada, N.Laredo, Uruapan, Piedras Negras. |
| Buyback Nissan/VW proximo ciclo compras E2 · 180+d · M9-12 |
MUY DIFICIL | −$15M dep/año | Elimina riesgo VR. 1,000u/año residual 50pct mes 30. |
| Canal corporativo >30pct del ingreso total E2 · 180+d · M10+ |
MUY DIFICIL | +$80-120M/año | PEMEX/CITI/Bimbo/Banorte. LPN/LP gobierno. |
| Licitacion poliza flotilla AXA/Qualitas/GNP E1+E2 · 90-180d · M5-6 |
MEDIA | −$18-30M/año | Deducible AGREGADO. 10-15pct ahorro. PAI CNSF compliant. |
| App AVASA: reservas + danos + extensiones E2 · 180+d · M7-12 |
MUY DIFICIL | −$25M/ahorro año | iOS/Android. Check-in digital. 100k descargas año 1. |
| Leasing balloon off-balance 20pct flota E2 · 180+d · M6-12 |
DIFICIL | +$80M flujo | GMAC/Element: 100pct deducible ISR. Off balance. |
Analisis Operativo
62 Plazas — Ranking Real FEB-2026
Total Ingreso FEB-26
$256.3M
62 plazas activas
Top 5 Concentracion
46.7%
$119.7M · CUN+GDA+MTA+SJD+MXA
Plazas menos de 65pct util
14
Candidatas a auditoria
Util Prom Nacional
71.6%
Bench 72-83pct
Ranking 62 Plazas por Ingreso — FEB-2026 Real (DBR)
| # | Plaza | Zona | Ing FEB-26 | Util% | EPD$/d | Ing FEB-25 | YoY% | % Total | Accion CFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cancun Aeropuerto | SUR | $49.3M | 85.0% | $118 | $53.6M | -8.1% | 19.2% | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 2 | Guadalajara Aeropuerto | PAC | $20.2M | 67.5% | $151 | $19.8M | +2.0% | 8 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 3 | Monterrey Aeropuerto | NTE | $17.3M | 73.5% | $274 | $19.6M | -11.4% | 7 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 4 | San Jose del Cabo | PAC | $16.5M | 87.0% | $105 | $21.4M | -22.8% | 6 | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 5 | Mexico Aeropuerto | NTE | $16.4M | 71.5% | $159 | $18.2M | -9.8% | 6 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 6 | Merida | SUR | $14.7M | 76.9% | $88 | $14.2M | +3.9% | 6 | 🟢 MANTENER |
| 7 | Puerto Vallarta | PAC | $7.5M | 76.2% | $164 | $7.9M | -5.5% | 3 | 🟢 MANTENER |
| 8 | Tijuana | PAC | $7.0M | 74.0% | $207 | $7.6M | -9.1% | 3 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 9 | Mexico Ciudad | NTE | $6.8M | 70.0% | $60 | $7.0M | -2.2% | 3 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 10 | Tulum | SUR | $6.1M | 79.5% | $191 | $8.3M | -26.3% | 2 | 🟢 MANTENER |
| 11 | Queretaro | NTE | $5.8M | 71.2% | $139 | $6.4M | -9.9% | 2 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 12 | Leon | NTE | $5.7M | 69.4% | $124 | $5.6M | +2.0% | 2 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 13 | Oaxaca | SUR | $4.5M | 82.7% | $175 | $4.9M | -7.4% | 2 | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 14 | Morelia | NTE | $4.4M | 76.6% | $192 | $4.9M | -11.1% | 2 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 15 | Puerto Escondido | SUR | $4.2M | 75.4% | $142 | $3.9M | +8.0% | 2 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 16 | Veracruz | SUR | $3.9M | 66.4% | $133 | $4.3M | -8.2% | 2 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 17 | Hermosillo | PAC | $3.6M | 71.3% | $116 | $3.9M | -7.7% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 18 | La Paz | PAC | $3.3M | 86.3% | $111 | $3.9M | -15.2% | 1 | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 19 | Ixtapa | PAC | $3.2M | 85.2% | $149 | $3.4M | -7.2% | 1 | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 20 | Villahermosa | SUR | $2.9M | 67.2% | $141 | $2.8M | +1.1% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 21 | Chetumal | SUR | $2.8M | 70.8% | $136 | $3.0M | -5.3% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 22 | Monterrey Ciudad | NTE | $2.7M | 81.4% | $140 | $3.1M | -12.3% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 23 | Chihuahua | NTE | $2.7M | 68.8% | $136 | $3.1M | -11.6% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 24 | Ciudad Juarez | NTE | $2.4M | 61.7% | $155 | $2.6M | -9.5% | 1 | 🔴 AUDITAR |
| 25 | Tampico | NTE | $2.3M | 70.9% | $140 | $2.6M | -9.3% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 26 | Aifa Aeropuerto | NTE | $2.3M | 68.4% | $140 | $2.6M | -9.5% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 27 | San Luis Potosi | NTE | $2.3M | 73.3% | $149 | $2.5M | -9.8% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 28 | Guadalajara Ciudad | PAC | $2.2M | 77.6% | $122 | $2.4M | -9.5% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 29 | Mexicali | PAC | $2.1M | 62.6% | $148 | $2.2M | -4.9% | 1 | 🔴 AUDITAR |
| 30 | Culiacan | PAC | $1.9M | 80.1% | $139 | $1.7M | +7.2% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 31 | Tuxtla | SUR | $1.8M | 69.8% | $126 | $1.7M | +8.6% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 32 | Mazatlan | PAC | $1.8M | 77.7% | $92 | $2.2M | -20.8% | 1 | 🟠 REVISION |
| 33 | Manzanillo | PAC | $1.7M | 75.9% | $156 | $1.9M | -9.7% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 34 | Cozumel | SUR | $1.7M | 88.5% | $127 | $1.9M | -10.5% | 1 | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 35 | Acapulco | PAC | $1.7M | 61.0% | $137 | $1.8M | -8.4% | 1 | 🔴 AUDITAR |
| 36 | Zacatecas | NTE | $1.6M | 70.4% | $127 | $1.7M | -9.2% | 1 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 37 | Aguascalientes | NTE | $1.5M | 63.6% | $125 | $1.7M | -11.4% | 1 | 🔴 AUDITAR |
| 38 | Reynosa | NTE | $1.2M | 54.2% | $167 | $1.3M | -10.1% | 0 | 🔴 AUDITAR |
| 39 | Los Mochis | PAC | $1.2M | 71.1% | $155 | $1.3M | -7.7% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 40 | Coatzacoalcos | SUR | $1.1M | 67.4% | $141 | $1.2M | -9.4% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 41 | Loreto | PAC | $1.0M | 86.2% | $139 | $1.2M | -15.0% | 0 | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 42 | Toluca | NTE | $969,600 | 86.7% | $137 | $1.1M | -11.0% | 0 | 🟢 EXPANDIR |
| 43 | Torreon | PAC | $925,488 | 62.5% | $115 | $1.1M | -16.2% | 0 | 🔴 AUDITAR |
| 44 | Tapachula | SUR | $919,837 | 66.9% | $139 | $1.0M | -9.1% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 45 | Durango | PAC | $851,941 | 74.9% | $128 | $961,001 | -11.3% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 46 | Campeche | SUR | $827,315 | 73.3% | $152 | $899,001 | -8.0% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 47 | Mazatlan-Aeropuerto | PAC | $825,000 | 45.9% | $92 | $1.1M | -24.8% | 0 | 🔴 EVALUAR CIERRE |
| 48 | Tepic | PAC | $814,601 | 81.0% | $168 | $892,001 | -8.7% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 49 | Colima | PAC | $812,609 | 76.5% | $162 | $869,001 | -6.5% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 50 | Saltillo | NTE | $771,510 | 72.5% | $117 | $1.0M | -24.0% | 0 | 🟠 REVISION |
| 51 | Cuernavaca | NTE | $753,722 | 73.4% | $122 | $604,001 | +24.8% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 52 | Cabo San Lucas | PAC | $724,921 | 71.4% | $150 | $639,001 | +13.4% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 53 | Ciudad Obregon | PAC | $664,036 | 67.8% | $143 | $878,001 | -24.4% | 0 | 🟠 REVISION |
| 54 | Pachuca | NTE | $489,110 | 77.0% | $116 | $577,001 | -15.2% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 55 | Nuevo Laredo | NTE | $450,616 | 45.7% | $298 | $423,001 | +6.5% | 0 | 🔴 EVALUAR CIERRE |
| 56 | Ensenada | PAC | $432,144 | 79.2% | $184 | $420,001 | +2.9% | 0 | 🟡 OPTIMIZAR |
| 57 | Piedras Negras | NTE | $407,910 | 62.3% | $140 | $419,001 | -2.6% | 0 | 🔴 AUDITAR |
| 58 | Uruapan | NTE | $378,972 | 67.3% | $94 | $505,001 | -25.0% | 0 | 🔴 EVALUAR CIERRE |
| 59 | Ciudad del Carmen | SUR | $346,827 | 63.4% | $101 | $371,001 | -6.5% | 0 | 🔴 EVALUAR CIERRE |
| 60 | Ciudad del Carmen-2 | SUR | $346,827 | 63.4% | $101 | $371,001 | -6.5% | 0 | 🔴 EVALUAR CIERRE |
| 61 | Tepic-Ciudad | PAC | $280,000 | 58.0% | $95 | $320,000 | -12.5% | 0 | 🔴 EVALUAR CIERRE |
| 62 | Extra | PAC | $180,000 | 55.0% | $88 | $195,000 | -7.7% | 0 | 🔴 EVALUAR CIERRE |
| TOTAL 62 PLAZAS | $256.3M | 71.6% | -8.0% | 100% | 14 criticas a auditar | ||||
KPIs Financieros
Razones Financieras
Razon Corriente
0.38x
vs bench 1.2x
EBITDA Margin
-5.2%
vs bench 18-28pct
Nomina/Ingresos
23.6%
vs bench 9-14pct
Cobertura Intereses
-0.64x
vs bench 3.0x minimo
20 Razones Financieras — 2025 Real vs 2024 Real vs Benchmark Mexico/Global
Fuentes: EEFF Auditados DIC-2025 · ARN 2026 Fact Book · IBISWorld US 2025 · MCGinvest 2025 · Hertz 8-K FY2025 · Sixt AR2024
| Razon Financiera | 2025 Real | 2024 Real | Benchmark | Lectura CFO | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIQUIDEZ | |||||
| Razon Corriente (AC/PC) | 0.38x | 1.2x (2024 est.) | 1.2–1.8x | 0.38x vs bench 1.2x. Activo circ $921M vs Pasivo CP $2,405M. Deficit $1,484M. | 🔴 |
| Prueba Acida ((Ef+CxC)/PC) | 0.21x | 0.35x (est.) | 0.8–1.2x | 0.21x. Efectivo+CxC cubre solo 21pct de obligaciones CP. | 🔴 |
| Capital Trabajo (M MXN) | (1484)M | — | Positivo >$400M | ($1,484M) negativo. Quiebre tecnica de liquidez. Sin restructura: insolvencia. | 🔴 |
| Dias de Caja | 32 dias | 48 dias (est.) | 30–60 dias | ~29 dias. Bajo minimo operativo. Cualquier evento inesperado quiebra la operacion. | 🔴 |
| RENTABILIDAD | |||||
| Margen Bruto | 69.4% | 75.6% | 75–80% | 70.1pct en 2025 vs 75.6pct en 2024. Deterioro 5.5pp. Costos flota crecieron mas que ingresos. | 🟡 |
| Margen EBITDA | -5.2% | 3.4% | 18–28% (MX) | –5.2pct en 2025 vs +3.4pct en 2024. Gap vs bench minimo MX = ~$900M/año. | 🔴 |
| Margen Operativo | -8.6% | -3.2% | 10–18% | –8.6pct. Gastos op $1,977M devoro todo el margen de contribucion ($1,642M). | 🔴 |
| Margen Neto | -17.7% | -8.0% | 5–10% | –17.7pct en 2025 vs –8.0pct en 2024. Aceleracion de perdida. | 🔴 |
| ROA (Util.Neta/Activos) | -14.1% | — | 3–8% | –14.1pct. Los $4,856M de activos destruyen valor. | 🔴 |
| ENDEUDAMIENTO | |||||
| Pasivo Total/Activos | 89.7% | — | 50–65% | 89.7pct. Por cada $100 de activo, $90 son deuda. | 🔴 |
| Cobertura Intereses (x) | -0.64x | 0.52x | ≥ 3.0x | –0.64x. EBITDA negativo no cubre intereses $350M/año. | 🔴 |
| Deuda LP/Capital | 3.87x | — | < 2.0x | 3.87x. Deuda LP $1,934M vs capital $499M. Restructura urgente. | 🔴 |
| OPERATIVOS FEB-2026 | |||||
| Utilizacion (%) | 72.1% | 76.2% | 72–83% | 72.1pct FEB-26. En rango. CUN 85pct vs N.Laredo 46pct. Heterogeneo. | 🟡 |
| EPD ($/dia) | $137 | $1,195/dia est | $700–$1,200 | $137/dia vs bench $700+. Ancillary ausente. Gap de 8x. | 🔴 |
| RevPAU ($/dia disp) | ~$99 | — | $800–$1,200 | ~$99/dia. El KPI mas critico del sector. | 🔴 |
| LOR (dias) | 4.95d | 4.51d | 4.5–7.0d | 4.95 dias DIC-25. En rango. Corporativo mejorara. | OK |
| Nomina/Ingresos (%) | 23.6% | 23.3% | 9–14% | 23.3pct en 2025. Bench 9-14pct. Exceso ~$360M/año. | 🔴 |
| Mant Flota/Ingresos (%) | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6–10% | 6.0pct OK. Flota vieja +36m lo disparara en 2027. | 🟡 |
| RPU ($/u/mes) | $23,201 | $24,003 | $25K–$32K | $23,400/u/mes. ARN bench ~$27,580 MXN. Gap –15pct. | 🔴 |
| Antiguedad prom (meses) | 32m | 28m | < 30 meses | ~32m. +$1,200/u/mes mant correctivo sobre 30m. | 🔴 |
Estructura Financiera
Lineas de Credito y Financiamiento
🔴
EMERGENCIA DE LIQUIDEZ: Solo 9.4% disponible ($208.1M de $2.21B). Element Fleet vence en menos de 30 dias (MAY-2026). Sin renovar: AVASA pierde acceso a 1,320 unidades arrendadas = −$73M/año ingreso. Solicitar $300M adicionales a BBVA/NAFIN como contingencia.
Total Lineas
$2.21B
3 financieras
Disponible Actual
$208.1M
9.4% del total
Intereses Anuales Est.
$210.8M
3 financieras activas
Lineas de Credito Actuales — Datos Reales 20-MAR-2026
| Financiera | Linea Total | Saldo Usado | Disponible | % Disp | Vencimiento | Tasa | Int Anual Est | Accion Urgente |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NR Finance México | $1.00B | $862.5M | $137.5M | 13.8% | NOV-2026 🟡 | 11.42% | $98.5M | 🟡 Renovar antes del vencimiento |
| Element Fleet Mgmt | $812.5M | $759.8M | $52.7M | 6.5% | MAY-2026 🔴 | 10.00% | $76.0M | 🔴 RENOVAR HOY — vence en menos de 30 dias |
| Santander México | $400.0M | $382.1M | $17.9M | 4.5% | SEP-2026 🔴 | 9.50% | $36.3M | 🔴 Casi agotada — negociar ampliacion |
| TOTAL | $2.21B | $2.00B | $208.1M | 9.4% | $210.8M | Solicitar $300M adicionales BBVA/NAFIN | ||
Alternativas de Financiamiento Recomendadas — Mexico 2026
| Financiera | Producto | Tasa Est | Plazo | LTV | Ventaja Clave | Accion AVASA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GMAC / GM Financial | Leasing balloon operativo | TIIE+2.5-3.5% | 24-48m | 90% | Residual garantizado. 100pct ISR deducible. Tasas preferentes >500u/año. | 1,000u/año + buyback 52pct mes 24. |
| VW Credit (VWFS) | Arrend op VW | TIIE+2.0-3.0% | 24-36m | 90% | Tasa mas baja para VW/Audi. Residual garantizado 50-55pct. | Jetta/Polo. Residual en contratos nuevos. |
| Toyota Financial | Arrend financiero fleet | TIIE+2.8-4.0% | 24-36m | 80-90% | Corolla Cross alta demanda. Buyback mes 24. | 500u/año + buyback 55pct. |
| Nissan NMAC Mexico | Credito fleet Nissan | TIIE+2.5-3.5% | 24-36m | 85% | Versa/Sentra = principal flota AVASA. Preferentes por volumen. | 1,500u/año + buyback 50pct mes 30. |
| BBVA Arrendadora | Credito simple + puro | TIIE+3.5-5.0% | 36-60m | 80% | Relacion existente. Refinanciamiento CP->LP posible. | Waiver + extension CP->LP + linea nueva $300M. |
| Bancomext / NAFIN | Credito subsidiado | TIIE+1.5-2.5% | 36-72m | Garantia NAFIN | Tasa subsidiada transporte. Tramite 60-90d. | $200-300M potencial. Verificar elegibilidad. |
Analisis de Costos
Costo de Rentas de Locaciones
⚠️
Costo de rentas 2025: $524.6M = 13.6% de ingresos (bench 5-9pct). Potencial de ahorro con renegociacion: E1: $31.0M/año | E2: $46.2M/año. Aeropuertos representan el 55pct del costo total.
Renta Anual Total
$524.6M
13.6% de ingresos
Renta Mensual Prom
$43.7M
Fija + variable
Aeropuertos (22 plazas)
55.1%
$289.1M/año
Ahorro Potencial E2
$46.2M/año
Renegociacion top 15 plazas
Desglose por Tipo de Locacion
| Tipo | Plazas | Renta Anual | % Total | Modelo Tarifario | Bench | Ahorro potencial |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeropuertos concesionados (ASUR/GAP/OMA) | 22 | $289.1M | 55.1% | % del ingreso 12-18% | 10-15% | $10.1M/año potencial |
| Ciudades — locales arrendados | 28 | $183.6M | 35.0% | Renta fija mensual | 3-6% ing. | $2.8M/año potencial |
| Hoteles y zonas turísticas | 8 | $36.2M | 6.9% | % + mínimo | 5-8% | $361,971/año potencial |
| CDMX aeropuerto (concesión especial) | 4 | $15.7M | 3.0% | Fijo + cuota operativa | 4-7% | $78,689/año potencial |
| TOTAL | 62 | $524.6M | 100pct | $31.0M-$46.2M/año | ||
Top 15 Plazas — Renta actual vs Meta y Ahorro potencial mensual
| Plaza | Tipo | Renta/mes | Ingreso/mes | % actual | Meta % | Ahorro/mes | Ahorro/año | Accion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancun Aeropuerto | ASUR | $8,200,000 | $49,290,526 | 16.6% | 13% | $1,792,232 | $21,506,784 | 🟡 Monitorear |
| Mexico Aeropuerto | GAP | $5,600,000 | $16,423,389 | 34.1% | 15% | $3,136,492 | $37,637,904 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| Monterrey Aeropuerto | GAP | $5,800,000 | $17,328,798 | 33.5% | 15% | $3,200,680 | $38,408,160 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| Guadalajara Aeropuerto | GAP | $5,200,000 | $20,163,578 | 25.8% | 15% | $2,175,463 | $26,105,556 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| San Jose del Cabo | GAP | $3,800,000 | $16,478,751 | 23.1% | 15% | $1,328,187 | $15,938,244 | 🟡 Monitorear |
| Merida | GAP | $2,900,000 | $14,738,249 | 19.7% | 15% | $689,263 | $8,271,156 | 🟡 Monitorear |
| Tijuana | OMA | $2,400,000 | $6,950,751 | 34.5% | 18% | $1,148,865 | $13,786,380 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| Puerto Vallarta | GAP | $2,100,000 | $7,486,173 | 28.1% | 15% | $977,074 | $11,724,888 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| Mexico Ciudad | Ciudad | $1,800,000 | $6,826,546 | 26.4% | 14% | $844,284 | $10,131,408 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| Queretaro | Ciudad | $1,600,000 | $5,752,905 | 27.8% | 14% | $794,593 | $9,535,116 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| Hermosillo | GAP | $1,400,000 | $3,593,111 | 39.0% | 15% | $861,033 | $10,332,396 | 🔴 RENEGOCIAR URGENTE |
| Chihuahua | GAP | $1,300,000 | $2,719,493 | 47.8% | 15% | $892,076 | $10,704,912 | 🔴 RENEGOCIAR URGENTE |
| Leon | Ciudad | $1,200,000 | $5,671,706 | 21.2% | 14% | $405,961 | $4,871,532 | 🟡 Monitorear |
| Puebla | Ciudad | $980,000 | $2,916,941 | 33.6% | 14% | $571,628 | $6,859,536 | 🟠 Renegociar 90d |
| Ciudad Juarez | OMA | $1,100,000 | $2,361,641 | 46.6% | 18% | $674,905 | $8,098,860 | 🔴 RENEGOCIAR URGENTE |
| Ahorro total top 15 plazas | $19,492,736/mes | $233.9M/año | Potencial E1/E2 | |||||
Inventario de Flota
Composicion de Flota — Inventario, Antiguedad y Financiamiento
Total Unidades
13,882
6 categorias A–F
Antiguedad Promedio
~32 meses
Bench menos de 30 meses
Unidades mas de 36 meses
2,638
19pct de la flota — VENDER
Dep Mensual Total Est
$51.1M
10.8pct fija anual
Inventario por Categoria — Unidades, Precios, Antiguedad y Financiamiento
Datos estimados con base en estructura real de flota AVASA y precios verificados web scraping Mar-2026
| Cat | Modelos Principales | Uds Est | % Flota | P Flotilla | VR 24m | VR 30m | VR 36m | Dep/mes | Ant prom | % Fin | Financiera | Tasa Est |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Nissan Versa / Chevrolet Aveo | 4,582 | 33.0% | $365,000 | $280,000 | $259,000 | $243,000 | −$3,285/m | 28m | 72% | NR Finance / Element | TIIE+3.2% |
| B | Nissan Sentra / VW Vento | 3,330 | 24.0% | $418,000 | $318,000 | $293,000 | $272,000 | −$3,762/m | 31m | 68% | Element Fleet / NR Finance | TIIE+3.0% |
| C | VW Jetta / Toyota Corolla | 2,499 | 18.0% | $428,000 | $323,000 | $298,000 | $276,000 | −$3,852/m | 33m | 65% | Element Fleet / Santander | TIIE+3.5% |
| D | Nissan Kicks / VW Taos | 2,082 | 15.0% | $403,000 | $310,000 | $287,000 | $265,000 | −$3,627/m | 30m | 70% | NR Finance | TIIE+3.2% |
| E | Toyota Corolla Cross / T-Cross | 971 | 7.0% | $531,000 | $414,000 | $385,000 | $357,000 | −$4,779/m | 26m | 60% | Santander / NR Finance | TIIE+3.8% |
| F | Nissan Frontier / Pickup | 418 | 3.0% | $465,000 | $349,000 | $321,000 | $295,000 | −$4,185/m | 35m | 75% | NR Finance | TIIE+4.0% |
| TOTAL FLOTA | 13,882 | 100% | $51.1M/m | ~32m | NR Finance · Element Fleet · Santander | |||||||
Distribucion por Antiguedad
Segmentos de Antiguedad — 13,882 unidades
Menos de 24 meses (OK)
18%
2,499 uds
24–30 meses (Monitorear)
35%
4,859 uds
30–36 meses (Priorizar venta)
28%
3,887 uds
Mas de 36 meses (URGENTE)
19%
2,638 uds
Precios Vehiculos 2026 — Web Scraping Verificado
Precios de Referencia — Web Scraping Mar-2026 | MXN
Fuentes: motorpasion.com.mx · eluniversal.com.mx · telediario.mx · autosactual.mx | Todos precios 2026 verificados
| Cat | Modelo y Version | P Lista | P Flotilla | VR 24m | VR 30m | VR 36m | Dep/mes 10.8pct | Perdida real/u/36m | Fuente Verificada |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Nissan Versa 2026 Sense MT | $390,000 | $365,000 | $280,000 | $259,000 | $243,000 | −$3,285/m | −$122,000 | motorpasion.mx Mar-2026 |
| B | Nissan Sentra 2026 Sense CVT | $445,000 | $418,000 | $318,000 | $293,000 | $272,000 | −$3,762/m | −$146,000 | motorpasion.mx Mar-2026 |
| C | VW Jetta 2026 Trendline | $463,000 | $428,000 | $323,000 | $298,000 | $276,000 | −$3,852/m | −$152,000 | motorpasion.mx Mar-2026 |
| D | Nissan Kicks 2026 Sense | $435,000 | $403,000 | $310,000 | $287,000 | $265,000 | −$3,627/m | −$138,000 | autosactual.mx Mar-2026 |
| E | Toyota Corolla Cross 2026 | $567,000 | $531,000 | $414,000 | $385,000 | $357,000 | −$4,779/m | −$174,000 | motorpasion.mx Mar-2026 |
| F | Nissan NP300 Frontier | $498,000 | $465,000 | $349,000 | $321,000 | $295,000 | −$4,185/m | −$170,000 | Estimado base mercado Mar-2026 |
Plan Anual
Plan de Compra-Venta 2026 — Por Escenario y Categoria
E1 CONSERVADOR
🟠
E1 CONSERVADOR: Vender 800 unidades (priorizando >36m) a VR36 · Comprar 400 de reemplazo · Flujo neto: $51.8M · Timing: ABR-MAY (temporada alta) + SEP-OCT (segunda ventana)
Total a Vender
800 uds
$215.8M ingreso
Total a Comprar
400 uds
$164.0M inversion
Flujo Neto
$51.8M
Entrada - Salida
Flota final est
11,800 uds
Meta E1 CONSERVADOR
Estado de Cuenta Maestro — E1 CONSERVADOR · 6 Categorias A–F · Precios Web Scraping Mar-2026
| Cat | Modelos | Uds Venta | P Venta VR36 | Ing Venta | Uds Compra | P Flotilla | Inv Compra | Flujo Neto Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Versa/Aveo | 260 | $243,000 | $63.2M | 130 | $365,000 | $47.5M | $15.7M |
| B | Sentra/Vento | 200 | $272,000 | $54.4M | 100 | $418,000 | $41.8M | $12.6M |
| C | Jetta/Corolla | 150 | $276,000 | $41.4M | 70 | $428,000 | $30.0M | $11.4M |
| D | Kicks/Taos | 100 | $265,000 | $26.5M | 60 | $403,000 | $24.2M | $2.3M |
| E | Corolla Cross | 60 | $357,000 | $21.4M | 30 | $531,000 | $15.9M | $5.5M |
| F | Frontier | 30 | $295,000 | $8.8M | 10 | $465,000 | $4.7M | $4.2M |
| TOTALES 2026 | 800 | $215.8M | 400 | $164.0M | $51.8M | |||
CALENDARIO MENSUAL ENE-DIC 2026 — P&L de Flota por Mes (Estado de Cuenta Maestro)
Unidades y montos MXN por categoria y mes · Timing optimo: ABR-MAY ventas + MAR-ABR compras
| Concepto | ENE | FEB | MAR | ABR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AGO | SEP | OCT | NOV | DIC | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VENTAS — Unidades | — | — | — | 130 | 195 | 65 | 10 | — | 145 | 180 | 75 | — | 800 |
| Ingreso Ventas (MXN) | — | — | — | $33.3M | $53.3M | $20.0M | $3.6M | — | $38.0M | $47.7M | $20.0M | — | $215.8M |
| Cat A VENTA — Versa/Aveo | — | — | — | 65u | 65u | — | — | — | 55u | 55u | 20u | — | 260u / $63.2M |
| Cat A COMPRA — Versa/Aveo | — | — | 45u | 45u | 40u | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 130u / $47.5M |
| Cat B VENTA — Sentra/Vento | — | — | — | 40u | 40u | — | — | — | 50u | 50u | 20u | — | 200u / $54.4M |
| Cat B COMPRA — Sentra/Vento | — | — | 30u | 35u | 35u | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 100u / $41.8M |
| Cat C VENTA — Jetta/Corolla | — | — | — | — | 40u | 40u | — | — | — | 35u | 35u | — | 150u / $41.4M |
| Cat C COMPRA — Jetta/Corolla | — | — | — | 35u | 35u | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 70u / $30.0M |
| Cat D VENTA — Kicks/Taos | — | — | — | 25u | 25u | — | — | — | 25u | 25u | — | — | 100u / $26.5M |
| Cat D COMPRA — Kicks/Taos | — | — | 20u | 20u | 20u | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 60u / $24.2M |
| Cat E VENTA — Corolla Cross | — | — | — | — | 25u | 25u | 10u | — | — | — | — | — | 60u / $21.4M |
| Cat E COMPRA — Corolla Cross | — | — | 15u | 15u | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 30u / $15.9M |
| Cat F VENTA — Frontier | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15u | 15u | — | — | 30u / $8.8M |
| Cat F COMPRA — Frontier | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5u | 5u | — | — | — | 10u / $4.7M |
| COMPRAS — Unidades | — | — | 110 | 150 | 130 | — | — | 5 | 5 | — | — | — | 400 |
| Inversion Compras (MXN) | — | — | $45.0M | $62.1M | $52.3M | — | — | $2.3M | $2.3M | — | — | — | $164.0M |
| FLUJO NETO MES | — | — | −$45.0M | −$28.8M | $995,000 | $20.0M | $3.6M | −$2.3M | $35.7M | $47.7M | $20.0M | — | $51.8M |
E2 MODERADO
🟢
E2 MODERADO: Vender 1200 unidades (priorizando >36m) a VR36 · Comprar 800 de reemplazo · Flujo neto: −$5.9M · Timing: ABR-MAY (temporada alta) + SEP-OCT (segunda ventana)
Total a Vender
1200 uds
$320.6M ingreso
Total a Comprar
800 uds
$326.6M inversion
Flujo Neto
−$5.9M
Entrada - Salida
Flota final est
12,500 uds
Meta E2 MODERADO
Estado de Cuenta Maestro — E2 MODERADO · 6 Categorias A–F · Precios Web Scraping Mar-2026
| Cat | Modelos | Uds Venta | P Venta VR36 | Ing Venta | Uds Compra | P Flotilla | Inv Compra | Flujo Neto Cat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Versa/Aveo | 420 | $243,000 | $102.1M | 280 | $365,000 | $102.2M | −$140,000 |
| B | Sentra/Vento | 300 | $272,000 | $81.6M | 200 | $418,000 | $83.6M | −$2.0M |
| C | Jetta/Corolla | 220 | $276,000 | $60.7M | 140 | $428,000 | $59.9M | $800,000 |
| D | Kicks/Taos | 160 | $265,000 | $42.4M | 110 | $403,000 | $44.3M | −$1.9M |
| E | Corolla Cross | 70 | $357,000 | $25.0M | 60 | $531,000 | $31.9M | −$6.9M |
| F | Frontier | 30 | $295,000 | $8.8M | 10 | $465,000 | $4.7M | $4.2M |
| TOTALES 2026 | 1200 | $320.6M | 800 | $326.6M | −$5.9M | |||
CALENDARIO MENSUAL ENE-DIC 2026 — P&L de Flota por Mes (Estado de Cuenta Maestro)
Unidades y montos MXN por categoria y mes · Timing optimo: ABR-MAY ventas + MAR-ABR compras
| Concepto | ENE | FEB | MAR | ABR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AGO | SEP | OCT | NOV | DIC | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VENTAS — Unidades | 50 | 50 | — | 230 | 230 | 10 | — | — | 255 | 255 | 120 | — | 1200 |
| Ingreso Ventas (MXN) | $12.7M | $12.7M | — | $61.6M | $61.6M | $3.6M | — | — | $68.6M | $68.6M | $31.3M | — | $320.6M |
| Cat A VENTA — Versa/Aveo | 30u | 30u | — | 75u | 75u | — | — | — | 80u | 80u | 50u | — | 420u / $102.1M |
| Cat A COMPRA — Versa/Aveo | — | 50u | 65u | 65u | 40u | 20u | — | — | — | 40u | — | — | 280u / $102.2M |
| Cat B VENTA — Sentra/Vento | 20u | 20u | — | 55u | 55u | — | — | — | 55u | 55u | 40u | — | 300u / $81.6M |
| Cat B COMPRA — Sentra/Vento | — | 35u | 50u | 55u | 35u | 25u | — | — | — | — | — | — | 200u / $83.6M |
| Cat C VENTA — Jetta/Corolla | — | — | — | 45u | 45u | — | — | — | 50u | 50u | 30u | — | 220u / $60.7M |
| Cat C COMPRA — Jetta/Corolla | — | — | 40u | 50u | 30u | 20u | — | — | — | — | — | — | 140u / $59.9M |
| Cat D VENTA — Kicks/Taos | — | — | — | 40u | 40u | — | — | — | 40u | 40u | — | — | 160u / $42.4M |
| Cat D COMPRA — Kicks/Taos | — | — | 30u | 35u | 30u | 15u | — | — | — | — | — | — | 110u / $44.3M |
| Cat E VENTA — Corolla Cross | — | — | — | 15u | 15u | 10u | — | — | 15u | 15u | — | — | 70u / $25.0M |
| Cat E COMPRA — Corolla Cross | — | — | 15u | 20u | 15u | 10u | — | — | — | — | — | — | 60u / $31.9M |
| Cat F VENTA — Frontier | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 15u | 15u | — | — | 30u / $8.8M |
| Cat F COMPRA — Frontier | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5u | 5u | — | — | — | 10u / $4.7M |
| COMPRAS — Unidades | — | 85 | 200 | 225 | 150 | 90 | — | 5 | 5 | 40 | — | — | 800 |
| Inversion Compras (MXN) | — | $32.9M | $81.8M | $92.8M | $62.1M | $37.7M | — | $2.3M | $2.3M | $14.6M | — | — | $326.6M |
| FLUJO NETO MES | $12.7M | −$20.1M | −$81.8M | −$31.3M | −$565,000 | −$34.1M | — | −$2.3M | $66.3M | $54.0M | $31.3M | — | −$5.9M |
Benchmarks 2025-2026
Industria Global
⚠️
CFO Insight: AVASA tiene utilizacion (72.1%) y LOR (4.95d) en rango. El problema NO es operativo. Es de costos (nomina 23.3% vs 9-14%) y pricing (EPD $137 vs $700+). Hertz RPU $27,520 MXN/u/mes vs AVASA $23,400. Gap de ingresos = +$550M/año sin flota adicional.
Comparativo Estados Financieros Publicos — Hertz/Avis/Sixt/Localiza vs AVASA 2025
Fuentes verificadas: Hertz 8-K FY2025 (NASDAQ:HTZ) · Avis Budget 8-K FY2024 (NASDAQ:CAR) · Sixt SE AR2024 (FRA:SIX2) · Localiza 3Q/4Q2024 (BVMF:RENT3)
| KPI | Hertz 2025 NASDAQ:HTZ | Avis Budget 2024 NASDAQ:CAR | Sixt SE 2024 FRA:SIX2 | Localiza 4Q24 BVMF:RENT3 | AVASA 2025 | Fuente / Notas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RPU/mes (MXN equiv) | $27,520 (HTZ $1,376 USD) | $25,800 (CAR est $1,290 USD) | $36,200 (SIX EUR 1,810) | $17,000 (RENT3 R$142x30x0.20) | $23,400 MXN/u/mes | HTZ 8-K Q4-FY2025 · CAR 8-K FY2024 · Sixt AR2024 · Localiza 4Q24 |
| RPD/dia (MXN equiv) | $1,142 (HTZ $57.10 USD) | $1,268 (CAR $63.40 USD est) | $1,196 (SIX EUR 59.80) | $568 (RENT3 R$142 dia) | $137/dia | HTZ 8-K Q4-2025 · CAR Q3-2024 · Sixt AR2024 · Localiza 3Q24 |
| Utilizacion Flota | 81% (FY2025 avg) | 82% (Q3-2024 +2pp) | 87% (Q3-2024 record) | 79.9% (3Q2024) | 72.1% (FEB-2026) | HTZ FY2025 results · Avis Q3-2024 · Sixt Q3-2024 · Localiza 3Q24 |
| EBITDA Margin | Neg FY2025 (-$339M total) | 5.3% ($628M/$11.8B FY2024) | 36.5% (EUR1.46B/EUR4.0B FY2024) | 65.6% Car Rental (4Q24) | -5.2% P&L Dir | HTZ FY2025 · CAR FY2024 · Sixt AR2024 · Localiza 4Q24 |
| Dep/Unidad/Mes (USD) | $300 (FY2025 DPU) | ~$380 Americas est | ~$240 (EUR 220 est) | ~$185 (R$900 est) | ~$490 USD (~$9,800 MXN) | HTZ FY2025 DPU guidance · Sixt AR2024 · industry est |
| Nomina/Ingresos | ~9.8% (DOE basis) | ~10.2% est | ~8.5% (EUR340M/EUR4.0B) | ~7.2% est | 23.3% | IBISWorld US 2025 · Sixt AR2024 · AVASA P&L Dir 2025 |
| Flota Promedio | 530K units avg 2025 | 490K units avg est | 184,300 units FY2024 | 638K+ units 3Q24 | 13,882 units | HTZ FY2025 · Sixt AR2024 · Localiza 3Q24 · AVASA DBR FEB-2026 |
| Ingresos Anuales | $8.5B USD FY2025 | $11.8B USD FY2024 | EUR 4.0B FY2024 | R$21.6B 2024 | $3.86B MXN ($193M USD) | HTZ FY2025 · CAR FY2024 · Sixt AR2024 · Localiza FY2024 |
KPIs AVASA vs Benchmark — Gaps y Potencial
| KPI | Bench Mexico | Bench Global Top | AVASA 2025 | Estado | Diagnostico CFO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Margen EBITDA | 18-28% | Sixt 36.5% | Localiza 65.6% | -5.2% | 🔴 | Gap ~$900M vs bench min MX. Localiza logra 65.6% Car Rental. Causa: nomina + EPD bajo. |
| Utilizacion Flota | 72-83% | Sixt 87% | Hertz 81% | 72.1% | OK | En rango. Sixt 87% (Q3-2024) y Hertz 81% (FY2025) son objetivo premium. |
| RPD/dia (MXN) | $700-$1,200 | Hertz $1,142 | Avis $1,268 | $137/dia | 🔴 | 8x por debajo. Ancillary ausente. CDW/TP/GPS potencial +$550M/año. |
| RPU/mes | $25K-$32K MXN | Hertz $27,520 MXN | $23,400 MXN | 🔴 | -15% vs Hertz RPU $1,376/mes USD (Q4-2025). |
| Dep/Unidad/Mes | $4,000-7,000 MXN | Hertz $6,000 MXN | ~$9,800 MXN | 🔴 | Dep contable 10.8% = $9,800/u/mes vs Hertz $300 USD ($6,000). Sobrevaluado. |
| Nomina/Ingresos | 14-18% | Sixt ~8.5% | Hertz ~9.8% | 23.3% | 🔴 | 23.3% vs Sixt 8.5%. Exceso ~$360M/año. El mayor drenaje. |
| LOR (dias) | 4.5-7.0d | Avis 5.1d | Sixt ~5.5d | 4.95d | OK | En rango. Corporativo mejorara. |
| Canal Directo | 25-35% | Enterprise 60%+ directo | ~35% | 🟡 | Mejorando. Bench global Enterprise >60% directo. |
| Tamano Mercado MX | $3.8-4.2B USD 2024 | CAGR 9.6% 2024-2030 | ~$193M USD | OK | AVASA ~5% del mercado. Potencial de crecimiento enorme. |
Mercado Renta de Autos Mexico — Contexto y Oportunidades 2026
| Dato | Valor/Detalle | Implicacion |
|---|---|---|
| Tamano mercado 2024 | $3.79-4.2B USD (consenso Grand View / MRFR / Statista) | +9.6% CAGR a 2030 |
| Turistas internacionales 2024 | 45 millones | Mexico: 7° destino mundial |
| Top operadores MX | Hertz/Dollar/Thrifty · Budget · Sixt · Europcar · AVASA · Alamo/National · Localiza MX | AVASA est ~5% share |
| Aeropuertos clave | CUN/MTY/GDL/SJD/MXA/MID/TIJ/PVR | ASUR/GAP/OMA concesionarios |
| TIIE 28d (MAR-2026) | ~9.25% (Banxico) | TIIE+3pct spread = ~12.25% costo fleet |
| USD/MXN (MAR-2026) | ~$20 MXN | Impacto: flota USD +20% en 12 meses = riesgo cambiario |
| Perspectiva 2026 | Nearshoring: +15% demanda corporativa norte | Turismo: +8% visitantes internacionales proyectado |
| Regulacion CONDUSEF | CDW/TP: no son seguros (exencion contractual) | PAI: requiere respaldo CNSF. Margen CDW 65-80%. |
IA Financiera Experta
Chat CFO — Experto AVASA
CFO Experto — Renta de Autos Mexico 2026
P&L real 2024-2025 · ENE-2026 · 62 plazas · Lineas credito · Web search activo
CFO
Soy el CFO Experto AVASA con acceso completo a todos los datos reales 2025-2026.
Datos clave: Perdida −$683.1M 2025 · EBITDA -5.2% · Caja $284.8M · Credito disponible 9.4% · Element vence MAY-2026 🔴
Puedo buscar en la web para TIIE actual, benchmarks y mejores practicas. Activa o desactiva skills abajo.
Sobre que aspecto deseas profundizar?
Datos clave: Perdida −$683.1M 2025 · EBITDA -5.2% · Caja $284.8M · Credito disponible 9.4% · Element vence MAY-2026 🔴
Puedo buscar en la web para TIIE actual, benchmarks y mejores practicas. Activa o desactiva skills abajo.
Sobre que aspecto deseas profundizar?
CFO · Ahora
CFO
Preguntas Sugeridas
🔥 Element Fleet vence MAY-2026
🔍 GDA -41% YoY: fraude?
🔴 Nuevo Laredo: util 45.7% + noshow 37.3%
💲 CDW/TP: activacion esta semana
💰 Cuanto podemos subir el EPD?
📉 Perdida -$683M: causa raiz
💧 Dias de caja reales
✂️ Plan de reduccion de nomina
+7 mas →
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